In moments of crisis, our country often comes together. After Sept. 11, polls showed 9 in 10 people agreed on issues like Afghanistan. A year and a half ago, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic also brought about a modicum of unity in the face of a major threat.
During March 2020, most Republicans and Democrats supported lockdowns. Trust in public health officials was broad-based and bipartisan, with Pew finding around 8 in 10 people holding a favorable view of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Even personal behavior regarding COVID-19 was largely decoupled from partisanship. That April, Republicans and Democrats alike were social distancing, only leaving home for essential activity, and masking up.
But as the pandemic dragged on with no end in sight, the underlying political and cultural divisions that temporarily subsided returned with a vengeance.
In April 2020, only 9% of people thought that social distancing and lockdowns would still be in effect “sometime next year” or after that. Nearly half (44%) expected we would be returning to normal by summer.
That, of course, did not come to pass. Now, here we are a year and a half deep into a crisis that began with asking people for “15 days to slow the spread.” And as time has marched on, ideological predisposition to distrust government restrictions has reasserted itself.
Take the government agencies and individuals that have been the face of our nation’s response to COVID-19. The CDC, once trusted by both parties, is now viewed unfavorably by almost a third of political independents and a whopping 45% of Republicans.
Last April, 63% of Republicans and 71% of Democrats said they had a favorable view of Dr. Anthony Fauci. Today, Democrats like Fauci even more, with 77% holding a favorable view of him; meanwhile, only 1 in 5 Republicans think positively of Fauci. (As for independents, only 15% of independents have a “very favorable” view of Fauci, meaning the market for items such as “Fouch on the Couch” throw pillows and such is pretty much limited to Democrats.)
Despite this distrust of government actions on COVID-19, Republicans have been generally OK with masking and vaccines in their personal choices and behaviors. Last December, after the 2020 election, 3 out of 4 Republicans still said they wore a mask most or all of the time when going out around others, and half said they saw mask-wearing as more about protecting others than managing your own risk, according to Kaiser Family Foundation polling.
Where Republicans diverge most from Democrats is not in whether vaccines are good or bad, but in what measures should be implemented and mandated by the government — a gap that has grown more and more pronounced since the beginning of the pandemic.
For instance, while 6 out of 10 Republicans report being vaccinated, 55% also oppose requiring vaccination in order for people to engage in day-to-day activities, according to my most recent Washington Examiner/Echelon Insights polling.
I am often asked if Republicans are facing political risk for their opposition to these mask and vaccine mandates. And surely, as cases spread, it takes a toll on the job approval figures for leaders at all levels —including President Joe Biden, whose job approval on handling COVID-19 has fallen substantially in recent weeks.
But on most COVID-related mandates, while Democrats are united and strongly in favor, independents look a bit more like Republicans, holding more mixed views.
Take requiring masks for children in schools: While only 23% of Republicans and 35% of independents strongly support such a policy, three-quarters (72%) of Democrats are strongly in favor. While 85% of Democrats support mandating vaccination to do day-to-day activities, only 44% of independents agree — making them much more like the 40% of Republicans who do the same.
Being opposed to mandates does not mean that Republicans are opposed to taking measures personally to prevent the spread of COVID-19. For many Republicans, it is possible to believe that the COVID-19 vaccine is positive (as most Republicans do) and be wary of vaccine mandates in various forms. It is possible to wear a mask most of the time in public and still bristle at mandates from the government to do so, even once you are vaccinated.
Of course, views could converge as the situation deteriorates, particularly as we approach flu season and much of the United States returns indoors for the winter.
After all, rising case numbers have led to rising concern in both parties about whether the worst is yet to come. And with renewed fears about COVID-19, some of that cross-party unity has emerged — last month saw jumps in vaccination rates in all 50 states, red and blue alike.
