SIMI VALLEY, Calif. — As he raced through the Reagan Library after the Republican debate Wednesday evening, I asked Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., why he did so much better in the second debate than the first, back in August.
“People!” Graham said. “People!”
Graham plays off an audience. At the debate in Cleveland last month, he and six other Republican candidates — all in the so-called “undercard” debate — squared off in a virtually empty arena. No applause, no laughter, no nothing to register audience approval or disapproval. Graham turned in a decidedly flat performance.
But Wednesday night, in front of a crowd of 500 at the Reagan Library, Graham was engaged, lively and funny. How many candidates promise to “drink more” in the White House? It was a breakout performance, if it is actually possible to break out from a position near zero in the polls.
Graham has done a lot of things in his 20 years in the House and Senate, but he is now essentially a single-issue candidate. “I’m running for president to destroy radical Islam, to win the war on terror, to protect you and your family,” he said at the beginning of the debate.
Given that, Graham has a way of turning nearly every topic into a discussion of the Islamic State, which he refers to by the acronym ISIL. He wants to send about 6,500 U.S. troops to Iraq — in addition to the 3,500 already there — to “turn the tide of battle.” As the debate began Wednesday, Graham challenged the moderators to ask all the candidates this question: “Are you willing to commit before the American people that you will destroy ISIL and you understand we need a ground force to do it?”
The moderators didn’t take Graham up on his challenge.
Graham supports the creation of a regional army to fight the Islamic State, with the U.S. playing a major role. “Ten percent at least will have to be us,” Graham said Wednesday, “and we’re going in on the ground and we’re going to pull the caliphate up by its roots and we’re going to kill every one of these bastards we can find because, if we don’t, they are coming here.”
Lots of Republican candidates favor a more robust campaign against the Islamic State, but nobody says it quite like that.
Polls show the public is divided nearly evenly on the question of sending U.S. troops to fight the Islamic State. But that’s the public overall; among Republicans, there is solid support for committing more troops.
There’s no immediate sign that Graham’s message is catching on. He is in 15th place among the 15 Republicans measured by the RealClearPolitics average of polls. In the last ten national polls, he has received 0 percent support eight times and 1 percent support two times.
That might not even be the worst of it. In a recent survey by the Democratic polling firm PPP, 78 percent of Republicans in South Carolina, Graham’s home state, said he should withdraw from the presidential race.
Yes, Americans want to stop the Islamic State, but they don’t seem interested in a candidate who has made it his overriding concern. But Graham believes the issue is too important to handle any other way. As he left the debate, I asked: I know you think this is a critical issue, but do you worry that many voters will hear your message as just war, war, war?
“No, I think it sounds like we’re going stop them before they get there,” Graham said. “I’m talking about a smart move to destroy a vicious enemy. We don’t need 100,000 [troops], but the longer it takes, the more we’re going to need. A year from now, if we don’t fix this, it’s going to be worse.”
One problem for Graham is that, even as the threat from the Islamic State remains, the rationale for a Graham candidacy has diminished. Graham decided to run when it appeared that Sen. Rand Paul might become a leading contender with a non-interventionist message. National security hawks were deeply concerned, and Graham wanted to stop him. But Paul has faded on his own. And the rest of the GOP field is pretty hawkish. It’s hard to make a case for the Graham candidacy.
How long will Graham stay in? He hasn’t raised a ton of money, but he’s raised enough, and he spends very little. His bigger problem will be laboring against the growing perception that he can’t climb out of the cellar. At some point, Graham will have to depend on his fellow Republican candidates to carry on the fight.
