Brexit dreams and broken promises

But if “no-deal” loses, a third meaningful vote on the controversial deal is now being touted. The government is calculating it might finally scrape this through as the only short-term option left for leaving.

The price though would be accepting continued EU controls over Northern Ireland, effectively separating it from the U.K. If its Unionist politicians then rebel by pulling out of their alliance with this minority government, it will fall. That alone could convince enough Conservative MPs not to vote for it.

Even if May resigns and a new kind of deal is proposed, it is hard to see how it could ever get around EU objections over the Irish border.

A “no-deal exit” could have solved this impasse by taking it out of the politicians’ hands altogether and allowing events to take their course. Switzerland already trades with the EU over very porous borders, and it is not in the customs union.

But Brussels clearly wanted to make Ireland difficult for Britain. So far, this has worked well for them and, until her first deal was stopped, May seemed happy enough to oblige.

Parliament can vote to extend the leave date, but it would also need the EU to agree and set its terms. European elections are to be held in May, and Britain will have to participate, if still a member by then. Should the resulting Brexit delay be long enough, the EU could then demand a second referendum. Double-democracy, or double-crossed democracy?

If the Conservatives had been committed to leaving, they would not have given David Cameron’s vacant desk to another “Remainer.” Even May’s former close adviser, Nick Timothy, criticized her for failing to see the economic upsides to Brexit and for treating it instead as a “damage limitation exercise.”

A total of 22 government ministers and aides have so far resigned over May’s handling of Brexit. The latest, Gareth Johnson, stated, “This agreement prevents us from taking back control and instead could leave us perpetually constrained by the European Union … I believe it would be disrespectful to the referendum result if this agreement were to be implemented.”

And that’s the point. May worked with “Remainer” civil servants rather than her “Leave”-minded and democratically elected ministers to concoct a withdrawal deal designed to preserve as much as possible of the status quo after Brexit. She was also happy to accept the EU’s exorbitant settlement demands.

It must be hard for anyone outside of the U.K. to understand how its politicians have managed to make such a complete mess of Brexit. I would put it down to varying degrees of arrogance, incompetence, and fear.

Arrogance, because “Remainer” MPs think Brexit was a terrible mistake and only they know what is best for the masses. They are also not used to voters directly setting a policy for them to follow, especially one that they passionately disagree with. “Leave” MPs were often caught between honoring the referendum and their party loyalties.

Incompetence, because almost three years on from the referendum, we are now down to the last three weeks — supposedly — and the only deal on offer still looks as dead as the day it was defeated by the largest margin in the history of Parliament.

And fear, because the independent spirit of Britain’s political class sadly disappeared a long time ago. For almost 50 years, our politicians have been used to acting under the supremacy of EU law and Brussels groupthink — with the notable exception of Margaret Thatcher and her team.

Meanwhile, the ongoing referendum revolution has made the very futures of the two main political parties look uncertain. Labour has already seen a split. What if a delay drives “Leave” Conservatives to team up with say, Nigel Farage’s Brexit party?

Andrew Davies is a U.K.-based video producer and scriptwriter.