Possibly the loudest argument that Donald Trump’s Republican opponents make is that Trump would lose the general election to Hillary Clinton in a landslide. According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls pitting Trump against Clinton in the general election, Trump would lose by 7.3 percentage points. At times, the average gap has been as small as 0.6 percentage points or as large as 19.6 points, both in favor of Clinton.
Of the 64 times Trump vs. Clinton has been polled, Trump has led only five times.
Trump supporters argue that it’s too soon to listen to those polls (but that the polls that show Trump doing well in the Republican primaries are correct). For comparison, let’s look back at general election polls from the last three presidential elections.
2012
There was one point when President Obama led Mitt Romney by an average of 7.3 percentage points, equal to Trump’s current deficit, but it was in June 2011 — 17 months before Election Day, not six. Between May and Election Day, the largest lead Obama ever had was 4.7 percentage points.
Obama won the election, and never faced a polling deficit larger than 1 percentage point. At this point in the race, Obama vs. Romney had been polled 187 times. Romney led in 34 of those polls.
Yes, Romney faced a general election polling deficit equal to Trump’s current deficit, but it was much earlier in the race. Romney faced a smaller polling deficit than Trump now does, and Romney was still unable to turn that into a victory.
2008
Obama won this election never facing a polling deficit larger than 3 percentage points. That large deficit came right after the Republican convention, so it wasn’t exactly an accurate portrayal of the race. One of Obama’s largest polling average leads was 8 percentage points. The race ended with Obama winning by 7.3 percentage points. At this point in the race, McCain vs. Obama had been polled 109 times, with McCain leading 28 times.
McCain faced a much larger deficit than Trump did, and McCain faced it much later in the race. Six months out, McCain and Obama were virtually tied. Overall, the 2008 election seems to be a good reminder that random events, like a financial crisis, sometimes intervene and affect elections.
2004
The 2004 election was a dead heat — until the GOP convention, when President Bush took the polling lead and never gave it up. Bush and John Kerry traded the lead back and forth throughout spring and summer 2004, with Kerry ahead by 2.8 points at his best point, and Bush ahead by 4.3 points at his best pre-convention point. At this point in the race, Bush vs. Kerry had been polled 59 times, with Kerry leading 23 times.
Bush was able to overcome a deficit of around 3 points to beat Kerry. Bush never once faced a deficit as large as the 7.3-point deficit Trump now faces.
On April 29 in the last three presidential elections, no one faced a larger general election polling deficit than Trump now faces against Hillary Clinton. The eventual winners also never faced a deficit larger than 3 percentage points, half as large as Trump’s current deficit. But both parties are in competitive primaries lasting longer into the year than usual, so take that with a grain of salt.
Favorability
Another polling aspect to look at is favorability. This is much less ambiguous on Trump’s prospects than the head-to-head polling. According to RealClearPolitics, about two-thirds of the country now view Trump unfavorably. During election season, Kerry, McCain and Romney never had a single poll put them above 52 percent unfavorability, let alone a polling average.
Of course, there are many things outside the campaigns’ control that could affect the outcome. What if the economy has a sudden downturn, as in 2008? What if military conflict abroad rises? What if there’s a terrorist attack on home soil? Any of those events could throw the proverbial wrench into the election.
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
