Bernie Sanders beat establishment favorite Hillary Clinton by more than 20 points in 2016. On Tuesday, he won the state by a much narrower margin. Considering that he’s running against more than half a dozen contenders this year, perhaps that’s only natural. But Sanders has to be looking over his shoulder right now.
Thanks to Joe Biden’s collapse in the Iowa caucuses and in national polling, especially among critical black voters, the septuagenarian socialist headed into the primary with all of the momentum behind him. He routinely led the Democratic field in polling, and his exemplary ground game enabled him to knock on the doors of nearly one-quarter of New Hampshire’s 640,000 households just on the day before the primary.
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And yet Bernie barely topped the pack. This ought to be concerning, considering the Granite State’s proximity to Vermont, and also given the fact that the white working class has long comprised his base. But the big picture is less promising still.
With the full-scale collapse of Elizabeth Warren coming after a year of culling also-rans, Bernie has effectively dominated the left lane of the primary to consolidate roughly a quarter of national polling. But Sanders and Warren, both of whom neighbor the state, together couldn’t crack 40% of the vote, whereas Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, and Biden collectively claimed the majority of the vote.
If Biden, who will not earn a single delegate from New Hampshire, drops out and either Klobuchar or Buttigieg wins back the centrist mantle, Bernie could find himself greatly outmatched.
