Syrian dictator Bashar Assad has a big problem. His currency is in free fall, and there’s little he can do to stop it.
Evidencing as much, Assad on Saturday increased the penalty for foreign currency trading. It will now involve years of hard labor. His security services are also escalating their repression of a growing protest movement over the Syrian pound’s collapsing value. Beyond the threats, however, Assad’s hands are tied. That’s because this crisis has four key sources largely outside of his control.
First, the recent introduction of new U.S. sanctions that have restricted Syria’s access to global financial networks — and foreign currency. Second, growing disruptions to Lebanon’s economy due to that nation’s protest movement. Lebanon is a top conduit for illicit dollar flows into Syria. Third, the evaporation of Syria’s capital reserves after nine years of civil war. Fourth, Iran’s inability to keep subsidizing Syria’s currency reserves due to its own pressure under U.S. sanctions.
And as the Financial Times reports, Assad is making matters worse by printing more and more increasingly worthless money. He risks dragging Syria into a hyperinflation death spiral.
America should help escalate his crisis.
Yes, it is regrettable that innocent Syrians are suffering the collapse of their currency. But if Vladimir Putin wants to dole out bundles of hard currency to save Assad, he can. America, however, should be focused on increasing pressure on Assad. Building on the 2019 Caesar Act, the United States should increase sanctions on financial institutions that directly or indirectly support Assad, especially in Lebanon, Turkey, and Iran.
We should do so because our national interest centers on Assad’s agreement to political power-sharing and his transition out of power. Massacring hundreds of thousands of Syrian civilians during the civil war, Assad and his Iranian and Russian allies have driven legions of recruits into the hands of Sunni Salafist-jihadist groups such as the Islamic State. To restrain the resurgence of those groups, Syria needs a political process that provides Sunnis with a real means of redressing their grievances. Until that happens, the rebellion will sustain, and jihadist groups will benefit in outsize measure.
Assad, a mass murderer, has lost any legitimacy as a ruler. Syria is not going to be a vibrant democracy anytime soon, but that doesn’t mean we should simply support Assad. Using economic leverage, the U.S. can force this despicable regime, and its foreign allies, to make serious concessions to those they have so long oppressed.
