Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates are suspending their boycott of Qatar. The announcement comes after months of heavy lobbying from the Trump administration and, in particular, Jared Kushner. That said, the deep tensions within the Gulf Cooperation Council aren’t going away. I also think it unlikely that Qatar will recognize Israel in the near future.
As of Monday evening, the UAE and Bahrain will open their waters and airspace to Qatari transit. Saudi Arabia will also reopen its land border with Qatar. In return for this border reopening after nearly four years of closure, Qatar is expected to pursue more open-minded engagement with the Saudi-led bloc on its concerns. Washington hopes this process will build trust toward greater Sunni Arab cooperation on matters of regional political and security concern. At the very least, this reengagement offers confidence that relations won’t get any worse.
Still, the functional source of the Saudi-Qatar dispute remains largely unresolved. The Saudis will continue to be enraged by Qatar’s close relationship with Riyadh’s archnemesis, Iran. Qatar’s generous financial support for Islamist movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood is another cause of great Saudi aggravation. This support fits alongside Qatar’s quiet alliance with Turkey in support of Islamist movements in Syria, Libya, and elsewhere. And while there is absent introspection on the part of the Saudi-led bloc to their own authoritarian governance, there are legitimate complaints over Qatar’s tolerance of networks that provide significant financial support to terrorist groups including the Islamic State.
We must also note that at its most basic level, the Qatar-Saudi conflagration is one of personalities and egos. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el Sisi takes special offense at the perception that Qatar is behind opposition movements against his rule. On that point, I would imagine that Sisi will use this detente as an excuse to ask the incoming Biden administration for more generous U.S. aid packages. The Al Jazeera factor also matters here. Sisi and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have particular hatred for the Qatari-owned Al Jazeera’s coverage of their leadership. As it seeks to present itself as the great interlocutor between the West and East, and to sustain its export of Islamic governance, Qatar will continue attempting to undermine its neighbors. In return, the Saudis will attempt to weaken and counter Qatar’s influence.
So, yes, this deal might be a detente. But it should not be seen as a restoration of formal alliances.
