When Oscar noms are announced Tuesday, here’s who you can expect to get a nod

It’s time for your yearly dose of disappointment, cinephiles.

Awards season is both a celebration of the year in cinema and an excuse for movie fans to make themselves crazy over which of their favorite films were snubbed from receiving relatively arbitrary and meaningless accolades. The Oscars are the ultimate culmination of this masochistic tradition.

That said, it’s Oscars season y’all! There’s still a sick thrill in trying to predict what movies the overwhelmingly old and white (albeit now slightly more diverse) Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will choose to highlight during the yearly (now hostless) telecast on Feb. 24. Who doesn’t love sounding like the smartest film buff in the room despite knowing that guessing Oscar nominations and winners is 90 percent luck?

Now that we’ve established the paradox of how simultaneously pointless and fun awards season is, let’s talk Oscar nominations for the major categories. Kumail Nanjiani and Tracee Ellis Ross will announce the nominees at 8:20 a.m. ET tomorrow. So, whose names will be called? Glad you asked!

Best Picture

  • “A Star Is Born”
  • “Black Panther”
  • “If Beale Street Could Talk”
  • “BlacKkKlansman”
  • “Bohemian Rhapsody”
  • “Roma”
  • “The Favourite”
  • “Green Book”
  • “Vice”
  • “Mary Poppins Returns”

These selections are operating under the assumption that the Academy will choose 10 films for Best Picture. They can technically opt to choose anywhere from five to ten. “Mary Poppins Returns” is only here as filler, and there’s definitely a chance the Academy balks at the idea of nominating a Marvel movie, even one as celebrated as “Black Panther,” for Best Picture. The other eight films are virtual locks to be nominated.

In a just world, neither the racially controversial “Green Book” or the deeply mediocre (and also problematic) “Bohemian Rhapsody” would be in this conversation, which would leave room for infinitely superior films such as “The Hate U Give” or “A Private War” to be nominated for Best Picture. Alas, there is no justice in this race, so we’re going to be stuck with those two clunkers.

Best Director

  • Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma”
  • Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
  • Barry Jenkins, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
  • Spike Lee, “BlacKkKlansman”
  • Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Favourite”

The only two locks here are Cuaron for his gorgeous, black-and-white magnum opus “Roma” and Cooper for filming the heck out of some concert scenes in “A Star Is Born.” The Academy will probably want to pay lip service to industry veteran Lee, and Jenkins’ follow-up to Oscar darling “Moonlight” is just as beautiful to behold.

There’s an argument to be made for Adam McKay and his Dick Cheney biopic “Vice,” but that is more an achievement in editing than direction. Lanthimos’ “The Favourite” is so expertly composed that hopefully the Academy will give him his due.

Best Original Screenplay

  • “The Favourite”
  • “Roma”
  • “Vice”
  • “Green Book”
  • “First Reformed”

This is a tricky category to predict, as none of the films being lauded during awards season are known for having groundbreaking scripts. “The Favourite” and “Roma” are probably most likely to be recognized for their intricate and revelatory wordplay. The Academy could throw a curveball by nominating smaller but still critically acclaimed films with crackling screenplays like “Sorry to Bother You” or “Eighth Grade.” But it will probably just go chalk as predicted above.

By the way, expect to see “If Beale Street Could Talk” and “BlacKkKlansman” get nominations for best adapted screenplay.

Best Actor

  • Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
  • Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
  • Christian Bale, “Vice”
  • Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
  • Ethan Hawke, “First Reformed”

Only the first three choices are locks, as the rest of awards season would lead us to believe that best actor this year is a three-man race. The last two spots will be taken by some combination of Mortensen, Hawke, and John David Washington for “BlacKkKlansman.” “First Reformed” probably won’t get much more love than this, so expect Hawke to be its sole representation.

Best Actress

  • Glenn Close, “The Wife”
  • Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
  • Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
  • Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
  • Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”

Like best actor, the first three selections are almost guaranteed to be nominated. Some may argue for Emily Blunt’s take on Mary Poppins or Nicole Kidman in “Destroyer,” but expect the Academy to express appreciation for Aparicio’s heartbreaking turn in “Roma” and McCarthy’s leap to the world of dramatic acting. Pour one out for Rosamund Pike, who gave the best performance of any actress this year in “A Private War” but who’s destined to be snubbed.

Best Supporting Actor

  • Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
  • Timothee Chalamet, “Beautiful Boy”
  • Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
  • Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
  • Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”

For this category, the only intrigue is who will take that final spot. The Academy will probably feel woke nominating Driver for his role in a Spike Lee joint, but for my money it should really consider Brian Tyree Henry’s incredible 20 minutes in “If Beale Street Could Talk” or Michael B. Jordan playing the most complex superhero-movie villain ever in “Black Panther.”

Best Supporting Actress

  • Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
  • Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
  • Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”
  • Amy Adams, “Vice”
  • Claire Foy, “First Man”

This is probably the category that is most set in stone. There’s almost no variation on Gold Derby’s Oscar nomination predictions for supporting actress, though some critics gave some love to Michelle Yeoh for “Crazy Rich Asians,” Emily Blunt (again) for “A Quiet Place,” and Nicole Kidman (again) for “Boy Erased.” Those are the only potential spoilers, but don’t hold your breath.

[Related: Ellen DeGeneres asks Academy to let Kevin Hart host the Oscars]

Joshua Axelrod (@jaxel222) was previously a web producer and pop politics writer for the Washington Examiner. He is an entertainment contributor to FanSided and has a master’s degree in Media and Strategic Communications from George Washington University.

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