Last week, the gloves came off between President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Speaking at the University of Miami at a conference on sexual assault, Biden said of Trump and the way he purportedly treats women, “If we were in high school, I’d take him behind the gym and beat the hell out of him.”
Trump responded that Biden is “weak, both mentally and physically, and yet he threatens me for the second time, with physical assault. He doesn’t know me, but he would go down fast and hard, crying all the way. Don’t threaten people Joe!”
Insanity ensued. The media accused Trump of fomenting violence. The Left accused Biden of having a toxic male attitude for daring to defend their honor. Various trainers, boxers and others were consulted as to who would win and what an enormous box office draw it would be. And Bovada, the online oddsmaker, even set odds on the fight – the president was a slight favorite.
There is nothing new about Trump and Biden threatening each other, but why now?
Because Biden is a political opportunist, the 2020 presidential race already is under way, and he is looking for ways to start standing out from what is expected to be a crowded field in the Democratic primaries.
Biden knows the knocks against him from the spectacular failures that marked his prior campaigns in 1988 and 2008 – weak fundraising, insufficient appeal to the grassroots, campaign mistakes. There’s a danger the Democrat establishment will rally behind a more modern-seeming candidate, such as Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., or Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., or go even further Left for Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., or someone from his wing of the party.
Although Democrats may not be united behind a candidate, they are completely aligned when it comes to hatred of Trump. They’ll be looking for pragmatic, well-known candidates who can challenge the president on the working-class voters in the Rust Belt that proved critical to the president’s victory in 2016.
For now, Biden looks like that candidate. He’s in the pole position among early 2020 Democratic presidential contenders with 27 percent, followed by Sanders at 21 percent. By contrast, Biden was at 4 percent at this point in 2008. Moreover, he would win a head-to-head matchup with Trump by 15 points, according to current polls.
The recent special election in southwestern Pennsylvania also demonstrated Biden’s appeal. He was the only national Democrat to campaign with Conor Lamb, who won the race by fewer than 700 votes, because he was the only one who wasn’t toxic in the district. Biden has also gained some attention recently for his studies on better policies to help workers.
Biden has never known success as the front man in a national campaign. He has arguably the least pizzazz of any of the candidates and, gaudy poll numbers notwithstanding, he’s never been a target of the withering assault he’d likely endure from Trump if he emerged as the Democratic nominee. Even if he is the best candidate, there’s no guarantee the Democrats will nominate him.
Presidential incumbents have substantial advantages – that’s why only five have lost since 1900 – and Trump could have impressive economic numbers to brag of by the time 2020 rolls around. But right now, any qualified Democrat has a puncher’s chance against Trump, and Biden is the party’s unquestioned leader at the moment. Trump would be wise to take him seriously and to avoid propping him up.
Ford O’Connell (@FordOConnell) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. He is an adjunct professor at The George Washington University Graduate School of Political Management, worked on John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign, and authored the book Hail Mary: The 10-Step Playbook for Republican Recovery.
