The results are in, and Donald Trump has won the South Carolina Republican presidential primary. Here are a few brief thoughts:
Trump’s Electability
South Carolina’s GOP primary has a reputation for picking the most conservative candidate who can win the general election. Its voters appear to have bucked that trend Saturday. With her victory in Nevada Saturday, it seems increasingly likely that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee. Of the five Republicans still in the race, the worst candidate in head-to-head polls is Donald Trump. On average, Clinton beats him by three percentage points. On the off chance Bernie Sanders is nominated, Trump is the second-worst GOP candidate to go against him.
Meanwhile, the candidate who polls best against Clinton finished in South Carolina’s bottom tier: John Kasich. His high head-to-head numbers probably have much to do with his low profile, while his moderate record is likely what hurt him in South Carolina. Marco Rubio seems much more likely than Kasich to win the GOP nomination, and he beats Clinton by an average of five points nationally.
Data curated by InsideGov
Trump Is Not Inevitable
Once Trump was declared the winner Saturday, many pointed out that no Republican candidate who has won both New Hampshire and South Carolina has ever lost the nomination. It’s important to remember: There’s a first time for everything. As this comic from 2012 points out, you can find a way to make a similar statement about every presidential election ever.
For example, no Republican had ever won the White House without winning Vermont, until President George W. Bush did it in 2000. Similarly, no Democrat had ever won the White House without winning Missouri until President Obama did it in 2008. Come July, we may be saying “No GOP candidate has ever won both New Hampshire and South Carolina and not gone on to win the nomination…until Donald Trump lost.
Nevada
Who knows what will happen in Nevada on Tuesday? There have been only two GOP polls taken in Nevada in 2016. If any candidates decide to drop out of the race after disappointing South Carolina results, a sizeable portion of the Nevada electorate could be up for grabs. How much of Jeb Bush’s support will go to Rubio? If all of Ben Carson’s supporters throw their weight behind Cruz in Nevada, for example, it could be enough to make Cruz look like the only viable alternative to Trump.
Nevada is notoriously difficult to poll, but the polls were pretty accurate on the Democratic side today. In the two major polls released in 2016 on the Democratic side, Clinton led by 3.5 points on average. She seems set to win by about five. If the same two polls are right on the GOP side, then Trump could win Nevada by 21 percentage points, with Cruz and Rubio virtually tied for second.
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
