The last big games of bowl season before the College Football Playoff have arrived. Thankfully, we have a few marquee match-ups between some great programs that include SEC and Big Ten powerhouses.
Here’s my prediction record so far this season: Straight up – (37-11), against the spread – (27-19, with one push). Not bad, right? Here are my previews and predictions for the three biggest bowl games of New Year’s Day.
No. 14 Michigan (9-3) vs. No. 13 Alabama (10-2) (1 p.m. ET on ABC)
Michigan and Alabama will duke it out in Orlando, Florida, in the Citrus Bowl. This is not the game that Alabama fans expected to play in when the season started. A season-ending injury to Tua Tagovailoa hurt the Crimson Tide’s chances in a big way, but it still had a chance to advance to the national championship until falling in the Iron Bowl to rival Auburn.
For Michigan fans, this is yet another frustrating season under Jim Harbaugh. Interestingly enough, if Michigan wins, it would be Harbaugh’s fourth 10-win season in five years at the helm. Despite that, he’s still on the hot seat for his inability to beat Ohio State and win the Big Ten.
Shea Patterson has had an underwhelming season for the Wolverines. He’s thrown for 2,828 yards, 22 touchdowns, and six interceptions while completing under 58% of his passes. The run game was never consistent, and Michigan got dominated by Wisconsin and Ohio State in big games when it mattered the most.
Two of Alabama’s stars on defense, Terrell Lewis and Trevon Diggs, won’t play in the Citrus Bowl because they’ll be declaring for the NFL draft and don’t want to risk getting injured. Although they’re both impact players, I don’t think their absence will make a huge difference in the game.
While he’s not Tagovailoa, Mac Jones is still a very capable quarterback. He makes good decisions with the football and has an outstanding offensive line in front of him. Najee Harris has run for almost 1,100 yards this season with 11 touchdowns and is averaging almost six yards per carry. He also has another seven receiving scores and is averaging 11.3 yards per catch out of the backfield.
I think Alabama has the best group of wide receivers in the country with LSU just behind them. However, Michigan comes into the game with the nation’s fifth-ranked pass defense in terms of passing yards allowed per game. That’s why my X-factor for this game is Michigan’s secondary against Jones and Alabama’s wide receivers. They’ll need to keep guys such as Jerry Jeudy and DeVonta Smith in front of them.
The spread: Alabama (-7.0)
My pick: Alabama comes into this game with the nation’s second-ranked scoring offense and 15th-ranked scoring defense. My only concern is that it will come out flat because it’s playing in a bowl game that it never wanted to play in and doesn’t really care about. Despite those concerns, I’m still taking the Crimson Tide to win and cover.
No. 6 Oregon (11-2) vs. No. 8 Wisconsin (10-3) (5 p.m. ET on ESPN)
Oregon enters the Rose Bowl wondering what might have been had it not lost incredibly close games to Auburn and Arizona State. Wisconsin, on the other hand, lost to Ohio State twice and had an embarrassing loss to Illinois as well.
The Ducks routed Utah in the Pac-12 title game because of great defense and a monster game from CJ Verdell. Verdell ran for more than 200 yards and three touchdowns on just 18 carries. The Ducks will need another performance like that out of him, especially if Justin Herbert continues to struggle.
Herbert is considered one of the top quarterback prospects in this year’s draft class. He would have been one of the top quarterbacks selected last year, but he opted to return for his senior season. He has thrown for 3,333 yards and 32 touchdowns with just five interceptions while completing 66.7% of his passes. Although those are still good numbers, they aren’t amazing, and he failed to consistently put up big performances in big games.
Verdell has run for eight touchdowns and nearly 1,200 yards this season while averaging 6.5 yards per carry. The Utah game was only the third time this season that he ran for more than 100 yards in a game. Does he have another big game in him?
Wisconsin’s Jack Coan has been solid and consistent under center for the Badgers. He doesn’t have gaudy stats, but he, like Herbert, is efficient and takes care of the ball. He has thrown for 2,541 yards and 17 touchdowns with four interceptions while completing more than 70% of his throws. The reason that Coan doesn’t need to throw a lot is because he has the best running back in the country behind him and one of the nation’s best offensive lines in front of him.
Jonathan Taylor is a record-setting running back who might be playing in his final college football game. He currently has 1,909 rushing yards and 21 rushing touchdowns on the year while averaging 6.4 yards per carry. He also has five receiving touchdowns and is averaging nearly nine yards per catch out of the backfield. Quintez Cephus is Coan’s favorite target down the field. Oregon will need to keep an eye on him throughout the game.
Although Oregon has the nation’s 10th best-run defense, Wisconsin has the country’s 14th best rushing offense and the country’s eighth best-run defense. The Ducks will certainly have their hands full.
My X-factor in this game is a pretty simple one. I’m going with Oregon’s front seven against Taylor and the Wisconsin offensive line. Whichever team wins this battle will gain a big edge in the game.
The spread: Wisconsin (-3.0)
The pick: I expect Wisconsin’s massive offensive line to wear down the Ducks over the course of the game. I’m taking the Badgers to win and cover.
No. 5 Georgia (11-2) vs. No. 7 Baylor (11-2) (8:45 p.m. ET on ESPN)
Last year, Georgia lost in the SEC Championship game and ended up outside the playoff and playing in the Sugar Bowl. The Bulldogs didn’t seem to want to be there because they missed out on the CFP and got manhandled by Texas.
This year, Georgia got embarrassed in the SEC Championship game and finds itself, once again, outside the playoff and playing in the Sugar Bowl. Will the Bulldogs respond differently this year against a different Big 12 opponent?
Baylor had a resurgent season and nearly beat Oklahoma twice. The key to the season has been a great defense and the excellent play of quarterback Charlie Brewer. Brewer suffered a concussion against Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game but has cleared the concussion protocol and will play in the Sugar Bowl. Brewer has thrown for 2,950 yards and 20 touchdowns with six interceptions while completing more than 65% of his throws. He has also run for 10 touchdowns as well.
Despite Joe Burrow torching them, the Bulldogs still have the nation’s second-best scoring defense and a very physical offense. Unfortunately for Georgia, five starters will be out for reasons varying from academics to preparing for the upcoming NFL draft. Georgia has great depth, but it will certainly feel the impact on the offensive line.
D’Andre Swift will be able to take some pressure off of Jake Fromm if he and the offensive line can get back into rhythm. Fromm had a terrible game against LSU and hasn’t had the success that he and others expected him to have this season. He has thrown for 2,610 yards with 22 touchdowns and five picks while completing just over 60% of his passes. Those aren’t the numbers that Georgia needed from him this year. It needed more. Part of that is because of Kirby Smart’s conservative play-calling, but Fromm simply hasn’t been what the Bulldogs needed him to be this year, especially against South Carolina and LSU.
My X-factor in this game will be Georgia’s linebackers against Brewer. In addition to blitzing him and trying to keep him off-balance, they’ll need to keep him in the pocket and prevent him from doing damage with his legs in addition to his arm. It won’t be easy. Brewer is second all-time in career completions at Baylor, so he’s definitely comfortable with sitting back in the pocket.
While this feels like an important game for Georgia, I think it’s unquestionably a bigger game for Baylor because of where the Bears are in their conference. If Baylor can win this game, that might signal that it’s absolutely ready for a run at a national title next season.
The spread: Georgia (-5.5)
The pick: I think the Bulldogs will put their embarrassing defeat in the SEC title game behind them and fend off a feisty Baylor squad. I’m taking the Dawgs to win and cover.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
