California is often treated as a punchline by conservative politicians and pundits, for understandable reasons. But the electoral dominance of California Democrats should not distract from the fact that their failures leave a path open for a conservative vision, and conservatives shouldn’t give up on trying to pursue.
In 2020, California Republicans flipped Democratic House seats for the first time since 1998. In total, Republicans took back four seats that were lost in the Democratic wave of 2018. The state is still an important factor in taking back the House: Nine races were closer than 10 points, with Republicans winning six of them as they weakened Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s majority.
But California is not just tactically important. The state offers the best contrast between conservative insight and the reality of liberal governance. California is one of the most naturally beautiful states in the country, and yet more and more residents are packing up and leaving because the cost of living is too high.
California is a state run by liberal elitists for liberal elitists. The people fleeing California aren’t more like Elon Musk or Joe Rogan, they are members of the middle or lower class who are being priced out of the California dream. The people moving into California, who help defenders of the state shrug off the argument that other people are leaving, are predominantly wealthy people who can afford it.
But many still believe in the California dream. Surveys show that Californians, especially nonwhite residents, are still optimistic about California’s future, even as they shoulder the biggest burden of housing costs. If conservatives truly wanted to get a foothold in the state, this would be where to do it, as Democrats have shown that this is a feature of liberal governance, not a bug.
Instead, we often get conservative pundits who whine about demographics, as if Republicans in Texas and Florida haven’t managed to win over Hispanic voters while remaining rock-ribbed conservatives. It’s a self-defeating mindset, as conservatives concede competition outside of a few pockets of the state before it even begins, all because of what? Immigration policy in 1986?
The recall effort against Gov. Gavin Newsom, an elitist who thinks he is better than the voters he will soon be facing, will get all the coverage, and understandably so. But the race isn’t some magic silver bullet that will forever change the direction of California. Democrats have run the state legislature since a brief GOP takeover of the State Assembly from 1994-1996.
Conservatives have a message that can resonate among California residents, as the middle class continues to wither away at the hands of the elitist California Democratic Party. All it takes is a real commitment to winning over Californians. It will be a long and hard road, but there are short-term benefits to pick up along the way in House races. And it will be well worth the payoff.
