Because of his growing unpopularity in Britain and his peculiar character traits, President Trump’s visit to the U.K. next year will be different from previous presidential trips.
While we don’t yet know the details and timings of the state visit, we can make some assessments about what it will involve.
To start, Trump will almost certainly receive the standard arrival ceremony at Buckingham Palace. This involves a military inspection and salute in the company of the Queen. We know Trump enjoys military festivities so the British will probably put on an especially significant display here.
That said, in light of Trump’s retweeting of a British far-right Twitter post on Wednesday, the president is likely to be kept away from Parliament. This is not unprecedented — former President George W. Bush did not address Parliament during his November 2003 state visit — but it will strike a discordant tone with former President Barack Obama’s May 2011 state visit.
Uniquely, Obama addressed Parliament from Westminster Hall and received fawning adoration from across the British political spectrum. Introducing Obama, the Speaker of the House of Commons compared Trump’s predecessor to Abraham Lincoln and praised him for a “dignity, determination and distinction that are widely admired.” In contrast, that same speaker has said he is “strongly opposed” to Trump speaking in Westminster Hall.
Instead, the British will probably have Trump address a foreign policy event or make a trip to a military base: perhaps outside London, so that the risks of disruption from protesters are mitigated. I could imagine the British might, for example, have Trump visit British Special Forces. Trump would probably enjoy the experience and it would have special relationship significance in the context of decades of close U.S.-U.K. special operations cooperation.
However, Trump is unlikely to be taken to speak at a school or civic center: the risks of protest and embarrassment are simply too significant. The Secret Service also do not like these visits with non-VIP officials.
What else?
Well, to personalize the visit, Theresa May will probably invite Trump to her Maidenhead constituency. That area is rural and pro-conservative, so is well-placed to ensure Trump gets a positive (or at least a less hostile) welcome. Trump might also make a stop at his Scottish Golf club. Again, he’ll enjoy doing so, but he is also more likely to receive a positive reception there. After all, his club provides many local jobs.
Finally, I would imagine that Trump will spend an unusual amount of time with the Queen. This will allow the British government an opportunity to isolate Trump, keeping him away from Parliamentarians and other public figures who might openly criticize him, but without insulting him. Here, it’s important to note that Queen Elizabeth II is regarded as the nation’s greatest diplomat: she can be relied on to be polite and respectful of Trump and his office.
Nevertheless, there’s no question that Trump’s tweets have made his upcoming state visit much more of a challenge for Britain. The U.K. government puts huge importance on the continued strength of the special relationship. Still, Trump’s unpopularity means that many public officials in the U.K. will now seek to embarrass him in public. And the U.K. knows Trump never steps back from a challenge.
That makes this a very complicated scenario!
