Russia is sending naval aviators to the Crimean peninsula. Traveling 1,650 miles from their Murmansk-area home bases in the bitterly cold Russian far north, the aircrews will train on newly developed aircraft carrier simulation facilities.
Belonging to the 279th Separate Shipborne Fighter Aviation Regiment, these fighter-bomber jets will soon be joined by another naval air regiment. Their arrival shouldn’t be viewed in a purely tactical-training context.
Occupied by Russian forces in 2014, Crimea remains recognized by much of the international community as sovereign Ukrainian territory. And while these aircrews will eventually fly off Russia’s sole aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov, the carrier is undergoing a major repair-modernization program and won’t reenter service before the end of 2023. Today, however, Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to dangle the threat of military escalation over his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky.
These jets add potency to that threat. And the threat is already very real.
Contrary to common perception, Russia retains a significant combined arms force within a short drive of Ukraine’s northern and eastern borders. Crimea gives Putin his threat to Ukraine’s southern flank. The Russian leader is also doubling down on Russian territorial supremacism. He’s suggesting that Ukraine cannot exist distinct from Moscow’s orbit.
That brings us back to these fighter deployments. Ground attack aircraft could easily be used against targets on the Ukrainian mainland. And more than 20 other bombers are already stationed in Crimea. In addition, the Russian 4th Air Force is based nearby at Rostov-on-Don. In concert with his artillery and missile forces, Putin has the means of assuming rapid air superiority were a new conflict to break out.
Does Putin seek such a conflict? It’s unlikely. That would risk new Western sanctions in an environment where Putin has credible aspiration of seeing the European Union dilute the sanctions it imposed in 2014. Instead, Putin will want to leverage these deployments to pressure Zelensky into a ceasefire on his terms. He wants Ukraine’s de facto recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea and contested territory in the country’s southeast.
In short, this deployment gives Putin improved political leverage and greater military freedom of action.
