Labor unions, having already frozen their political contributions to pressure Democrats into voting against free trade, have recently taken their game up a notch. They are now threatening primary challenges to Democrats in Congress who vote to give President Obama trade promotion authority in order to facilitate future trade agreements.
And it’s really starting to annoy the Democrats.
The Washington Examiner‘s Susan Ferrechio reported Thursday that Democrats are starting to push back against the unions’ strident demands. “Labor has gone a little overboard and I think there is some potential backlash for how far they are going,” Rep. Cedric Richmond, D-La., told Ferrechio. “I’m watching them do it and it bothers me.”
Not coincidentally, this pushback from the rank-and-file begins less than one week after AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka threatened to withhold his union’s endorsement for president if the party’s expected nominee, Hillary Clinton, comes out in favor of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Unions have long been a key part of Democratic Party politics, but exit polls from the last four presidential elections show that they are a fast shrinking voter block. In numerical terms, they are shrinking twice as fast as the number of Hispanic voters is growing. In 2000, voters from union households accounted for 26 percent of the electorate, but they have fallen off in every election since. By 2012, they made up just 18 percent of the electorate.
With smaller numbers comes less clout for the unions. In 2000, Al Gore narrowly won the popular vote for president, thanks to a margin of nearly 6 million votes among union households. By 2012, the shrinking pool of union-household voters only produced a 4 million vote margin for Obama — less than his decisive but not overwhelming 5 million-vote victory margin.
The loss of electoral influence presents the unions with a dilemma. On the one hand, it means they cannot afford to press their Democratic Party allies too hard. On the other hand, influence that is not used is lost. If free trade truly does threaten their survival, then union leaders have little to lose, as they may already view this as their last stand.
As little as they have left to lose, the unions’ odds of winning look worse with every passing year. A recent Pew poll showed that most Democratic voters (58 percent) believe free trade agreements have been good for America, but that’s not even the most important result from the poll. The two American demographic groups most supportive of free trade also happen to be the very ones upon which Democrats are hoping they can build future majorities — Hispanics (71 percent) and people under age 29 (69 percent).
This creates a classic clash for the soul of the Democratic Party, and it isn’t a fair fight. The shrinking, moribund labor movement cannot long hold off the Democrats’ great demographic future hope.
Free trade has made incredible economic specialization and innovation possible. It has lifted countless millions worldwide out of poverty and simultaneously improved Americans’ standard of living. Free trade is the future of both parties, and labor leaders may be the last to catch on.
