Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s demotion of foreign minister and former ambassador to Washington, Adel al-Jubeir, is a clear riposte to America. Adel is a trusted U.S. partner for dealings with the Sunni kingdom.
The new foreign minister is Ibrahim al-Assaf, a relative unknown who previously worked at the World Bank. But considering that al-Assaf has far less name recognition than the man he replaces, it’s worth asking why Adel has been so ignominiously dumped. Mohammed bin Salman and three other words sum it up: anger, control, and Russia.
On the anger count, the crown prince is clearly furious with America’s ongoing censure of the kingdom over the murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The Saudi government has sharply rebuked the U.S. Senate over a resolution condemning its role in the Khashoggi killing. As the most-pro American voice in the cabinet, demoting Adel allows the Crown Prince to send a message of disdain to Washington.
That takes us to the question of control. It is worth noting here that Adel is extremely close with outgoing U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis. Brought together by Mattis’ time as the commanding officer of the Middle East-focused U.S. Central Command, and by a failed Iranian plot to assassinate Adel in Washington, the two men engage frequently. But perhaps the crown prince now feels that Adel brings little added value towards influencing Washington behind the scenes. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is liked by the Saudis and by the crown prince in particular. But Mohammed bin Salman also would have found Adel as a bad match to his own control-freak tendencies. Bringing the technocratic al-Assaf into the royal court’s inner circle gives the young king-in-waiting more confidence against freelancing by his government ministers.
Then there’s the Russia angle. Vladimir Putin’s government is actively seeking to displace the U.S. as Saudi Arabia’s closest international ally. The Russians want Saudi investment in their economy in return for Russia’s closing a blind eye to Riyadh’s overreaching. And Putin is playing his hand well in this regard. Just this week a top Russian foreign ministry official warned against (nonexistent) U.S. efforts to affect the crown prince’s succession of King Salman. Top Russian Arabist, Mikhail Bogdanov asserted that “… we are against interference…. the King made a decision and I can’t even imagine on what grounds someone in America will interfere in such an issue and think about who should rule Saudi Arabia, now or in the future. This is a Saudi matter.”
Thanks to the Trump administration’s effective realism, Mohammed bin Salman remains close to the U.S. Still, the Russians are determined to portray themselves as a more natural and reliable ally to Riyadh than America. And the crown prince knows this to be the case, and likes it. Getting rid of a foreign minister the Russians knew was very close to Washington thus serves to tease Moscow with the hint of greater influence towards Riyadh in the future.
