Hillary Clinton will likely announce her vice presidential pick on Friday. The decision could come earlier, or her pick could be leaked, so let’s go ahead and speculate (somewhat wildly, although the list is getting narrowed) about whom her running mate might be.
Maxim Lott and John Stossel’s betting odds website gives Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine a nearly 70 percent chance of getting the pick. The website accurately predicted Indiana Gov. Mike Pence would be Republican nominee Donald Trump’s vice presidential pick, so there’s a fair chance they’ll be right this time as well.
Kaine makes sense on multiple levels. He’s a safe choice for Clinton, since he’s not bombastic but still very liberal (the media are trying to claim he’s a moderate, but no, there are no moderates left in the Democratic Party, only fewer attention-grabbers). He’s also the senator from a critical state — Virginia — which could help ensure Clinton wins the Old Dominion State.
Kaine also speaks fluent Spanish and as a lawyer, he focused on housing discrimination. He is also the former governor of Virginia (so he has executive experience) and former chair of the Democratic National Committee.
Here’s something else that could keep the odds in Kaine’s favor — his replacement. If he’s tapped to be Clinton’s running mate and they win, he’d obviously have to leave the Senate.
If this happens, Clinton crony Gov. Terry McAuliffe would be able to appoint a replacement, and could choose someone connected to the Clintons. McAuliffe is also term-limited, so he could always try to run for the seat himself if Clinton and Kaine win.
Being able to replace an outgoing Democratic senator with another Democrat makes picking Sens. Cory Booker of New Jersey and Sherrod Brown of Ohio difficult.
Both of their respective states have a Republican governor, who would presumably appoint a Republican to the seat, adding to the GOP’s Senate majority (or subtracting from the Democrat’s Senate majority, depending on how the election goes). Booker also doesn’t add much electorally, since Democrats have no fear of losing New Jersey in a presidential election.
Brown could help in Ohio, but the loss of his Senate seat might outweigh whatever help he could provide in the Buckeye State.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts was long seen as a top choice for Clinton’s running mate. Two women on the ticket against two men on the Republican ticket would send a strong message.
But Democrats aren’t in danger of losing Massachusetts in the presidential election. Warren could help bridge the gap between Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ supporters, however, since both senators wax poetic about taking down Wall Street.
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro was also seen as a potential Clinton VP pick, but even though having the most diverse ticket in U.S. history sounds good, he really adds very little. Hispanics already vote Democratic and Trump isn’t doing well enough with them to put that in danger. The same can be said about Secretary of Labor Tom Perez.
Another thing working in Kaine’s corner is that Clinton is reportedly looking for someone with national security experience. Can we all pause for a moment to note how the former secretary of state wants someone with foreign policy experience?
A vice presidential pick is typically seen as someone who is strong in the areas where the main candidate is weak. Clinton touts her foreign policy experience, but while she was secretary of state, the U.S. watched the rise of the Islamic State, lost four Americans (including a U.S. ambassador) in Benghazi, Libya, and brokered a failed “reset” with Russia.
Kaine sits on the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Just that — and the fact that his policies haven’t resulted in as many deaths and blunders — puts his foreign policy experience far above Clinton’s. Oh, and he also hasn’t mishandled classified information (that we know of).
Wanting foreign policy experience also puts James G. Stavridis in play for the No. 2 slot. He’s a retired four-star Navy admiral and was the 16th supreme allied commander of NATO. He hasn’t appeared on many Clinton VP lists, but he’s apparently on the short list now.
Still, I think it’s most likely Clinton picks Kaine. As I wrote before, I’m almost always wrong on these things, but so far this year I correctly predicted the winner of the Super Bowl (which had never happened before) and who Trump would pick as his running mate, so maybe my luck will change.
Ashe Schow is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
