Echelon Insights released its monthly polling omnibus this week, and for the first time I can remember, it included a series of demographic and policy questions that sketches out what an ideal congressional candidate for both parties would look like.
It’s a long list of questions you can read for yourself on Slide 15, but Echelon broke the responses down by race and education, creating some noteworthy results.
While all Democrats preferred a candidate endorsed by President Joe Biden (Biden-endorsed candidates got 14% more support than other candidates) over a candidate endorsed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC candidates got 12% less support than other candidates), the differences were far more dramatic by race.
Among college-educated whites, candidates endorsed by Biden only enjoyed a 4% edge on those without him. Candidates endorsed by AOC lost by 10%. But for black Democratic primary voters, a Biden endorsement helped by a whopping 25%, and an AOC endorsement hurt by 24%.
The results on COVID-19 were also striking. Among white Democrats with a college degree, a candidate who “talks mostly about minimizing the rate of COVID cases, including with mask and vaccine mandates” enjoyed an 8% edge over candidates who didn’t, while a candidate who “talks mostly about getting the country back to normal after COVID and lifting mandates as soon as we can” lost by 12%.
For black voters, both positions cost a hypothetical candidate 3% of the vote. So, if you are a Democrat running in a primary in a majority-black district, it’s best to just not talk about COVID-19 at all.
We’ve noted before the Democratic Party is run by a wealthy, mostly white elite that is far to the left of most black Democratic primary voters. Since 2016, they’ve had Trump to unite them. As Trump fades away, it will be interesting to see how the party changes.
