The Blue Wall fell, therefore the “blue wave” surely isn’t coming. This is the conclusion many Republican voters have come to in the wake of the 2016 election, and subsequent promises from President Trump that, in fact, a “red wave” may be coming in the opposite direction, with polls yet again underestimating support for candidates on the right.
Two different Republican organizations – the president’s “America First Policies” group and the RNC – have done opinion research that has found complacency among core Republican voters, who assume the Republican majorities are not in nearly as much danger as is advertised. Over the weekend, the New York Times reported:
“Conservative-leaning voters in the study routinely dismissed the possibility of a Democratic wave election, with some describing the prospect as “fake news,” said an official familiar with the research, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the data was not intended to be disclosed. Breaking that attitude of complacency is now the Republicans’ top priority, far more than wooing moderates with gentler messaging about economic growth.”
This was followed Tuesday by reporting at Bloomberg, including slides from a recent polling report provided to the RNC, in which 57 percent of voters who describe themselves as strong Trump supporters “don’t believe Democrats have a chance” to take back Congress. Both of these findings align with what I have also heard in focus groups this year across the country, that the perception of the polls having been so wrong in 2016 leads people to think the Democrats aren’t really on the verge of taking control of at least one chamber of Congress.
I’ve written extensively about why the polls still work and are better than people think, and how even data beyond the polls themselves point to a very, very good election night for Democrats. But what is fascinating is the extent to which both the America First and RNC studies show not just that Republican voters don’t trust the polls and don’t believe that a “blue wave” really may be coming, but that this is driving these voters to stay home.
Political scientists have long tackled the question of whether or not polls or voter perceptions of a party’s likelihood of winning have any impact on voter turnout. In the lead-up to the 2012 election, researcher David Rothschild found that voters tend to gravitate toward candidates or parties that are in the lead because they think a lead in the polls suggests other people have done their research and have decided the leading candidate is good. Researchers at Caltech last year conducted experiments that suggested voters who expect their party to lose by a lot become less inclined to participate.
Essentially, to the extent polls themselves change voter behavior, you ideally want to have polls showing your race close, but with your side in the lead. There’s a reason why campaigns most often leak internal polling that tells a favorable story, and push back against polls that show their side struggling — perception can become reality. Seen through this lens, the president’s insistence that the polls are all fake news is just an extension of a time-honored tradition in the world of campaign operatives. If Republican voters believe all is lost, they might stay home, and lots of evidence from the past suggests they would. Trump built a brand on the idea that he is a guy who knows how to win, and it’s predictable that he would want to push that message even in the face of polls that tell a different story. (It did work out for him last time, after all.)
But clearly, there’s a risk of over-doing it, and tweets reading “RED WAVE!!!” hardly suggest a close contest. They instead suggest that Republican voters need only sit back and let the supposed silent majority carry them to victory. Clearly, a number of major Republican groups are getting the message that the “polls are fake news” war-cry is backfiring, as complacency overtakes a sense of competitiveness.
A smarter and more honest message would underscore the competitive nature of the midterms: that there are a number of House seats in play where polls show the races are within a few points, that the Senate map is full of toss-ups, that the Governor’s mansions in a number of states are up for grabs by either party. The midterms do not look like they are going to go well for Republicans, but no one should take any expected outcome for granted – no matter how much they distrust the polls.
