Like a crumbling body builder, Republicans point to any successful lift these days as proof that their strength hasn’t faded completely, as one more reason not to send them to live the rest of their days in an old folk’s home permanently.
Take the sorry state playing out in the 6th Congressional District of Kentucky.
Rep. Andy Barr is the incumbent Republican and Amy McGrath is the Democratic challenger with the energy, with the national attention, and with 89 combat missions to her name as a former Marine fighter pilot. McGrath was the only candidate who could make the district a dogfight. But after four terms in Congress, Barr should be able to hold his own.
It became quickly apparent, however, that Barr would need help and national Republicans airdropped aid beginning in January. Since then it has become one of the most expensive races in the nation and apparently, according to a Paul Ryan-affiliated super PAC called the Congressional Leadership Fund, a rare victory.
Early in June, McGrath led Barr 51 to 38 percentage points. Two months later at the beginning of September, it is Barr who leads McGrath 49 to 45 percentage points.
“This dramatic turnaround should serve as an example to Republicans as to how to go on offense and win this cycle. Along with the Barr campaign, CLF has spent its time and money defining Amy McGrath as an out-of-touch Pelosi liberal — and the data shows it is working,” reads a memo released by the Congressional Leadership Fund. “In this environment, candidates who don’t win September won’t win on Election Day.”
Is it a big comeback? Absolutely. Is it a template for other vulnerable incumbents? Probably not. Republicans simply don’t have the resources to hold every down-ballot race.
The comeback was fueled less by healthy political calisthenics and discipline as it was forced by steroid spending. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, the Congressional Leadership Fund alone has pumped $1,078,341 into the race. Two years ago, for comparison, outside spending barely broke five figures with a $11,286 total. Barr won that race easily by 22 points.
A lot has changed since then, namely the name of the president. Donald Trump has come to the White House and brought a trade war with him. The retaliatory tariffs imposed on things like Kentucky bourbon threaten to cancel out the benefits of the Republican tax cut and maybe the Republican majority with it.
National Republicans are desperate to avoid this fate. They have injected outside cash into every competitive race, mainlining money in hopes that this new rush of spending might spark something, really anything, to revive their chances. An exhausted party weighed down by an unpopular president can only pull off so many power lifts before collapsing.
