A few weeks ago, as Donald Trump seemed to be meeting resistance at about 25 percent in the national polls, I argued that he had already peaked. But I was wrong. He’s since zoomed beyond 25 percent, and is at about 30 percent in an average of national polls compiled by RealClearPolitics.
What’s interesting is that that Trump’s rise isn’t coming at the expense of other candidates who have never held elective office. During the same time Trump has risen in polls, neurosurgeon Ben Carson has also surged, and now commands about 18 percent of the vote and climbing (and now claims the second spot in the Washington Examiner‘s presidential power rankings).
Taken together, Trump and Carson supporters now comprise about 48 percent of the electorate, while the rest of the 15 candidates combine for only about 43 percent (Rick Perry has suspended his campaign, but the RCP average still includes his modest polling numbers).
Even that doesn’t demonstrate the extent of the backlash against office holders. Add Carly Fiorina to the mix, and the three candidates who have never held elective office beat out the 14 politicians 52 percent to 39 percent.
If you broadened things a bit more and added Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, who has been defined by his fights against the party’s establishment, that makes it 59 percent to 32 percent.
It’s true that given the size of the field, the race remains very fluid and unpredictable. After Carson and Trump, there isn’t much separating the rest of the pack. If Walker, who has been written off as dead, gets a modest 4-point boost out of Wednesday’s debate, he’ll rise from eight to third in the RCP average.
That said, even if you don’t think that Carson or Trump will be the nominee, the data make it difficult to see a purely establishment candidate such as Jeb Bush emerging as the victor from the field. An electorate in which roughly six in 10 voters support either candidates who never held elective office, or Cruz, isn’t very ripe for another Bush coronation.
