Following disclosures about Kremlin funding for the assassination of U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan, the time has come for Washington to reevaluate its strategy toward Russia. Such a policy review must include a clearer understanding of President Vladimir Putin’s anti-American objectives and a more effective approach to stifling Kremlin ambitions.
Moscow’s strategic objective is to dismantle the West by reversing the transformations of the post-Cold War era, during which Russia lost its Soviet dominions and satellites. Attempts to build a Eurasian “pole of power” are designed to ensure Russia’s dominance over its neighbors and to weaken Western unity. An essential component of this policy is an anti-American offensive to eliminate U.S. military presence and undercut its political influences. And to compensate for Russia’s military and economic weakness vis-à-vis the West, Moscow deploys an assortment of political, financial, cyber, and informational tools to achieve its objectives.
Washington cannot remain passive or simply reactive to Putin’s attacks, as this simply encourages him to intensify and claim that America fears provoking Russia. In addition to strengthening U.S. defenses, consolidating our political and military alliances, and assisting NATO partners such as Ukraine and Georgia who are under direct attack, Washington must play political and informational offense.
Successful U.S. policy toward the Soviet bloc under Ronald Reagan can serve as a framework for reinvigorating core principles in dealing with Putin’s Russia. It must be anchored in promoting political pluralism, democracy, human rights, decentralization, and genuine federalism. Without a political transformation, Russia will degenerate into a failed state. Its weaknesses have been glaringly exposed by several simultaneous crises, including collapsing oil prices, a contracting economy, a rampant pandemic, falling public support for Putin, and growing regional unrest. Russia is afflicted by many more economic, social, political, ethnic, religious, and regional maladies than the Western democracies.
The Kremlin’s increasing authoritarianism cannot match communist brutality, and spreading resistance will contribute to fragmenting the country. Numerous nationalities and diverse regions are trapped within a structure that benefits a narrow elite of security personnel, bureaucrats, and oligarchs. With growing regional economic disparities, insufficient investment by Moscow, and an absence of local autonomy, the federal structure will become increasingly unmanageable.
During the Cold War, Reagan endorsed the transmission of facts to the captive nations in order to counter persistent Soviet fabrications. Washington can now support efforts to inform the Russian public about the Kremlin’s failures and deceptions. The West possesses the cyberexperts, the digital tools, and the geopolitical imperatives to mount a sustained information offensive based on facts about the real culprits for Russia’s deterioration. A multitude of media and social platforms can disseminate poignant data avoided by Russia’s state media, data reflecting growing poverty, rural depopulation, crumbling infrastructure, environmental disasters, government corruption, demographic decline, and expanding regional unrest.
Just as Moscow lost its propaganda war during Soviet times, the current Western informational offensive must be geared toward empowering nations and societies to replace the Putinist system. Western media outlets, nongovernmental organizations, and various information platforms can target youths, students, workers, ethnic and religious groups, regionalists, and other disaffected sectors of the population to help inspire the emergence of alternative movements. Russia is also not immune from the anti-establishment populism that has swept through Europe and the United States.
Another key component of a Western offensive is to disseminate compromising material about Putin and his inner circle. Simply imposing financial sanctions for attacks on the West is insufficient without informing Russian citizens that they are also Putin’s victims. Western intelligence services certainly possess more comprehensive information than opposition activist Alexei Navalny about the theft of the Russian budget by officials and oligarchs.
Disclosures about the greed and backstabbing within the ruling elite can also generate uncertainty in government circles and expose the regime’s political weaknesses. Suspicion and distrust will raise fears of political purges or state expropriation of oligarchs, and it can aggravate factional infighting. All these factors can undercut the Kremlin’s anti-American campaign. And ultimately, Washington will need to prepare for various scenarios, including the international repercussions of Russia’s potential fragmentation.
Janusz Bugajski is a Senior Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington, D.C. His recent book, co-authored with Margarita Assenova, is entitled Eurasian Disunion: Russia’s Vulnerable Flanks.
