At first glance, the special Alabama Senate election seems more dress rehearsal than Thunderdome. Nine candidates will enter and two will emerge, shake hands, and then gear up for a September runoff. Unlike most races though, second place means everything.
On top of a chance to advance, a silver medal for incumbent Sen. Luther Strange will also vindicate the influence of both President Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
Barring a fiery Earth consuming meteor, Judge Roy Moore will come out ahead. Polls show Moore consistently ahead with incumbent Sen. Luther Strange and Rep. Mo Brooks squabbling for second. Louisiana-based JMC Analytics has that pair neck-and-neck at 22 and 19 percent respectively or, as one GOP operative told me, in “a dead-ass heat.”
That should make McConnell and Trump nervous up north in Washington. Opposed on most other things, they’ve united to anoint Strange the establishment’s favored son. McConnell has airdropped more than $4 million in cash while Trump has taped a robocall and offered his endorsement via Twitter.
Normally that kind of firepower guarantees a victory. And if Brooks loses Tuesday, conventional wisdom says that Strange will rebound in a second effort next month to make quick work of Moore. But if he loses, if Strange misses his own runoff, all of the establishment’s support will be for nothing. Snubbed down South, McConnell and Trump will be taken a lot less seriously ahead of 2018, because everyone will know their big money and big tweets can’t secure a Senate seat.
Philip Wegmann is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
