Election Day is just around the corner. Republicans are now expected to hold the U.S. Senate. Most forecasters still expect Democrats to take over the House, but it might be close. Democrats need to net 24 seats; they are expected to gain between 20 and 40.
So why might this year’s midterm elections deviate from the “shellackings” of 2010 and 2014? The most important difference is probably the fact that the economy is basically off the table as an issue. Despite the stock market’s recent tough times, the components of the economy that ordinary people tend to feel first are doing very well and seem likely to continue. Employment is up by more than 4 million jobs since President Trump’s election. Unemployment is plumbing new depths at 3.7 percent, despite a growing labor force. Consumer confidence is at an 18-year high, and the number of available jobs exceeds the number of estimated job seekers.
