With four weeks until Iowa, the Republican field has narrowed to 12 candidates, though only a handful have a statistically significant chance of winning even a single primary.
We consider Ted Cruz the most important candidate in the race because his lead in Iowa is on more stable ground than Donald Trump’s lead in New Hampshire (and national polls at this point tell us very little). The big contest here is the three-way fight to be the establishment alternative to Trump and Cruz. It’s Rubio-vs-Bush-vs-Christie in that battle, with Kasich just behind that pack.
Timothy P. Carney, The Washington Examiner’s senior political columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]. His column appears Tuesday and Thursday nights on washingtonexaminer.com.
