Considering the news that a coronavirus-positive President Trump is being moved to Walter Reed military hospital, Vice President Mike Pence’s movements over the next few days will offer the best guide as to Trump’s health status.
The White House says that the president will be at Walter Reed for the next few days. Moving to the hospital is the right decision, ensuring the commander in chief has the best possible guardianship against unexpected decline. But over the next few days, the key metric for how Trump is doing health-wise will be the movements of the vice president.
In light of Secret Service protective tactics and strategy, and National Command Authority protocols (the president’s leadership over the military), Pence’s movements and visitations will be shaped by the perceived incapacity risk facing Trump in any one moment. This movement decision process isn’t so much about Trump as it is the nation. And in these situations, the Secret Service and military-run White House Medical Unit have greater influence than White House staffers. In large part, that’s due to concerns over the efficient defense of the nation. More on that in a moment.
But first, what specifics should we be watching for from Pence as a guide to Trump’s condition?
The key factor will be whether Pence continues with some 2020 campaign events and meetings of any kind. Pence has tested negative for the coronavirus. If Trump’s condition appears to be stable, the Secret Service will support the vice president’s limited but ongoing campaigning presence. The world’s finest protective force, the Secret Service would prefer that those under its charge are kept in a perpetual state of lockdown away from any prospective threat. But the Secret Service also recognizes that it serves a democratic purpose and that campaigning is an inherent part of that democracy. Of course, the agency’s leadership will regard the president’s infection as occurring at the almost-worst-possible time, so soon before the election. That timing means Pence’s desire to be out and about is far higher than usual.
That cuts to Pence’s movements over the coming days. If we see Pence being held at his official Naval Observatory residence without visitors and with limited shift changes on his Secret Service detail, it will be a strong sign that Trump’s health is unstable. Again, this “stronghold” control over Pence won’t be about him per se, but about the nation. Most specifically, about nuclear command and control.
While the Secret Service and Pentagon’s Strategic Command have very finely tuned and (very) highly classified protocols for rapidly shifting nuclear command authority down the presidential line of succession, the movement between a president and vice president is much easier in technical and operational terms than is the movement between a vice president and the next in line to the presidency, the speaker of the House of Representatives. A rapid command transfer from vice president to speaker, for example, complicates the assurance of command authority and strike operations in a situation where primary nuclear control centers have been rendered inoperable. TACAMO-related assets still need a clear line of communication to the verified commander in chief.
Pence has been briefed on his nuclear command authorities in a state of war and will almost certainly have conducted at least one training exercise to that effect. As I understand it, Pelosi will only have received a cursory briefing. Her Capitol Police protective detail will, however, have a constant operational tie-in to the Secret Service’s protective command post. Were nuclear war perceived imminent, Pelosi will be moving to a mountain base within a matter of minutes.
The simple point is that for those trusted to keep the nation’s leadership safe, and thus the nation’s nuclear deterrence secure, acceptance of additional risk is something to be mitigated as far as possible. So watch where Pence goes, and who he meets.
Let’s hope Pence meets with at least a few folks. If he does, it’s a good sign Trump is doing well. If Pence is acting like a loner, however, that’s not a good sign.
