The Philippines is a historic U.S. ally. Ever suffering unjustified attacks by China, the Philippines should find direct U.S. military support.
I make that point because, as my colleague Russ Read reports, President Rodrigo Duterte is calling on the U.S. to enforce the two nations’ mutual defense treaty and deploy the U.S. Navy off China’s coast.
So, what should be done?
I’m not calling for war. There is presently no justifiable cause for the kind of U.S. military deployment that Duterte seeks. To park the U.S. Navy’s 7th fleet off the Chinese coast in battle formation would invite a major escalation with Beijing. Thanks to Chinese capabilities and the U.S. Navy’s overemphasis on aircraft carrier operations, it would also risk 7,000 dead Americans at the bottom of the South China Sea.
Duterte knows this.
So hyperbolic that he makes President Trump appear near-mute in comparison, Duterte is simply trying to get China’s attention. He’s infuriated by aggressive Chinese military actions against Philippine fishing vessels and by Beijing’s continuing seizure of territory that is far closer to the Philippines than it is to China. His fury is justified.
Still, the alliance between the U.S. and the Philippines cannot be as one-sided as Duterte would have it.
The current situation, in which Duterte sucks up to China then demands American action against China when Beijing inevitably upsets him, is untenable. Duterte has been foolish in attempting to woo China without regard for President Xi Jinping’s nature. Xi regards the Philippines as little more than an obstacle to be brushed over or dominated. Xi does not seek to balance Chinese interests with the Philippines because he does not regard that nation strong enough to demand such balancing. This is a malevolent but presently fair assessment from the Chinese leader. After all, the Philippine navy currently consists of many patrol boats and almost zero deep-sea capability.
That said, it is in our interest to consolidate this relationship. The Philippines is a democracy that wants to prosper under the U.S.-led liberal international order. In contrast, China wants to purge that aspiration with its own order of feudal mercantilism. If the Chinese can constrain the Philippines, they will be able to constrain other nations across the region, including Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam. It is for this reason that Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was right to restate America’s commitment to the mutual defense treaty and is right to work towards clarifying the treaty’s stipulations.
Whether in Europe with NATO or in the Pacific with the Philippines, however, defense alliances must be mutual. Trump should thus reemphasize America’s commitment to defending the Philippines in the event of Chinese aggression. But the president should clarify that he expects Duterte’s reciprocation.
That means restricting Chinese telecommunications access, allowing U.S. missiles on Philippine territory (a growing priority), and increased Philippine defense spending in better support of regional security.
