Belarusians face a major government crackdown tonight, as they protest President Alexander Lukashenko’s absurd election theft.
Access roads to Minsk have been locked down, security forces are massing, and arrests have commenced. But the quite extraordinary measure of Lukashenko’s democratic affront, here, is propelling protester resolution. State-run exit polls show Lukashenko with a 79.7% tally and his primary opponent Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya with only 6.8%. These North Korean-style figures reflect Lukashenko’s utter disinterest in even a thin show of fairness. Analysts believe that Tsikhanouskaya would easily triumph were this election truly fair. Evincing as much, in Belarusian embassies abroad and those few polling stations where results were recorded accurately, Tskihanouskaya is leading handily.
The Belarusian journalist and human rights activist Franak Viacorka told me that the election was “a farce and a circus. … Candidates were imprisoned, observers were beaten and arrested, many voters were not allowed to vote.” Viacorka observed that the “regular army is in the cities. It all looks like Lukashenko is declaring the war on his own people.” The impact is already clear, he says. “Many people [have already been] wounded. Hundreds arrested. I did expect the brutal reaction of Lukashenko, but not so harsh.” Video footage shows some of these clashes.
What will happen next?
Well, the broader political context matters. Lukashenko’s exit polls and security mobilization make clear that he’s ready for a fight. Tsikhanouskaya entered the presidential race when her husband, Siarhei Tsikhanouski, was detained and his own candidacy blocked. Another popular candidate, Viktar Babaryka, was also detained and banned from standing. Those actions and this crackdown attest to a dictator who has held power for the past 26 years. Lukashenko has always believed that only he has the right to lead Belarus. But the past 12 months have been disastrous for Lukashenko. He has mismanaged Belarus’ response to the coronavirus pandemic and has failed to reform his command economy. Making matters worse, Russian President Vladimir Putin has reduced energy subsidies to Lukashenko, punishing him for refusing to become a Russian feudal ward.
If Lukashenko attempts to smash the protests into submission, the Trump administration and the European Union will have to respond forcefully. Viacorka suggests that Lukashenko is anticipating as much by blaming the West for the protests. “Initially, [Lukashenko] said that the Russians are behind the protests, but over the last few days, Lukashenko has often spoken about American involvement. He is looking for an explanation of such massive protests. He honestly can’t understand that people just don’t want him anymore.”
While Washington has rightly sought to take advantage of Lukashenko’s increasingly uncomfortable relationship with Putin, this election sham cannot be excused. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner Josep Borrell must publicly identify this attack on freedom and the rule of law. Sanctions should follow.
