The British Conservative Party has always been renowned for its internal intrigues and penchant for backstabbing. Winston Churchill was both a victim and a beneficiary of this dynamic. Still, few prime ministers have been in as difficult of a position as Theresa May is today.
Having announced her proposed Brexit deal with the European Union on Wednesday, May is now under attack from just about every side. May’s draft deal needs parliamentary approval, but powerful Conservative members of Parliament are now in overt rebellion against it. They say May has given the EU too much without winning the political recovery of powers from the EU that she promised. The Labour Party opposition are also saying that May’s agreement is unacceptable.
As such, it is hard to see how the prime minister can get this agreement through Parliament and into law. While this challenge was predictable, the aggression and scale of opposition to May has shocked many British political analysts.
Still, it is not clear where the Conservative Party goes from here. While some Conservative MPs are writing to the 1922 Committee, a Conservative group which can call a leadership confidence vote against May if at least 48 MP signatures are submitted, there is no obvious candidate who would appear to command the party’s confidence. After all, while most Conservative MPs don’t like May’s Brexit deal, neither do they have any semblance of agreement on what kind of feasibly alternate deal they would like.
That’s why May is likely to challenge any confidence vote and, ultimately, why she is likely to survive.
There’s a glimmer of hope for May here. The EU might enter a few more compromises into the existing agreement. May hinted at this possibility at her press conference on Thursday afternoon. Any new concessions from Brussels would allow May to consolidate at least a few wavering MPs and perhaps attract some Labour Party votes.
That said, there is a growing potential for holding a new referendum. The political crisis in Westminster is now spinning into the financial markets, with the British pound plummeting in value.
The coming days will be of instrumental consequence for Britain’s future.
