Iran is prevaricating as the Biden administration begs it to return to the nuclear negotiating table.
On Wednesday, speaking alongside Israeli foreign minister Yair Lapid, Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that “with every passing day, and Iran’s refusal to engage in good faith, the runway gets short. Time is running short. We are getting closer to a point at which returning to compliance with the [2015 nuclear accord] will not in and of itself recapture the benefits of the [accord].” Blinken added, “We are prepared to turn to other options if Iran doesn’t change course.”
Lapid was more direct: “By saying ‘other options,’ I think everyone understands, here, in Israel, in the [United Arab Emirates], and in Tehran, what is it that we mean.”
The problem for Blinken and President Joe Biden is that so far, they’ve shown limitless patience with Iran’s games. Is it any surprise that they keep playing them?
The Biden administration entered office with a clear negotiating strategy: It would not remove sanctions on Iran until the country returned to full compliance with the 2015 accord. This approach sought to leverage the economic pressure imposed on Iran by President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the accord and his associated reimposition of sanctions.
Unfortunately, Biden has since abandoned that pressure approach. As he literally begs Iran to return to negotiations, President Ebrahim Raisi’s new hard-line government senses that it holds the initiative. Tehran has increased its enrichment of uranium to higher purity levels. Iran’s ballistic missile development program also continues apace, enabled by the Biden administration’s suspending of certain counterproliferation efforts begun by the Trump administration.
The risk is that Iran will use this space and time to complete its competency with ballistic missiles. Such a success would allow Tehran to crash-build a deliverable nuclear weapon. It gets worse from there.
Facing an Iranian bomb, Israel’s hawkish Prime Minister Naftali Bennett will likely launch military action against Iran (with or without U.S. support). Remember that the Holocaust looms large in Israeli nuclear security strategy.
Biden needs to alter course. He should impose new economic sanctions on Iran now. Let Raisi explain to his frustrated people why he has made an already crippled economy even worse.
The need for action isn’t simply justified by Israel’s prospective annihilation and Iran’s exporting its Islamic imperialism under a shield of nuclear blackmail. In equal measure, this is about preventing a nuclear arms race in one of the most politically unstable regions on Earth. Paranoia, political uncertainty, and extremist currents abound in the Middle East.
Recent moves by Saudi Arabia to consolidate its relationship with Pakistan and to access Chinese nuclear technologies tell us something. Namely, that Iran’s theological nemesis will get its own nuclear weapons if Iran goes first. This could have all kinds of undesirable consequences. His more psychotic tendencies aside, if Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s domestic reform program fails, Saudi Arabia could collapse into a second caliphate run by the Islamic State. An Iranian nuclear weapon would also precipitate Turkish action. Do we want nuclear arms in the hands of the dribbling narcissist Recep Tayyip Erdogan?
Biden must recognize reality and seize the moment. He should give Iran a finite deadline of not more than one month to return to credible negotiations. Failing that, he should hold firm on Trump-era sanctions.
