Gov. Scott Walker, R-Wis., leads his Democratic challenger, businesswoman Mary Burke, by five points with “likely voters” in the Badger State, according to a new Marquette University Law School poll.
The survey, which was conducted Sept. 25-28, 2014, after news broke that Burke’s campaign had plagiarized her jobs plan, shows that the incumbent Republican governor leads 50-45.
This is the first time since March that either candidate has held a lead greater than the survey’s sampling margin of error, which, in the case of the Marquette University Law School poll, is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for “likely voter” respondents.
Burke and Walker are basically tied 46-45 among registered voters, but the “likely voters” figure is supposed to be more reflective of next month’s electorate, accounting for voter enthusiasm and voting history. In short, Walker has acquired a very important edge in winning re-election.
“Walker is doing better among men than Burke is among women [registered voters],” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported. “Walker had a 62 percent-34 percent advantage over Burke with men. Burke has a 54 percent-40 percent advantage over Walker with women … In August, Walker led 47.5 percent to 44.1 percent among registered voters. But Burke led 48.6 percent to 46.5 perecent among likely voters.”
Burke’s favorability rating currently rests at 36 percent, while 37 percent of respondents say they think unfavorable of the Harvard Business School graduate. Meanwhile, Walker’s favorability rating is also tied at 47 percent favorable and unfavorable.
One other important data point that suggests a clear Walker advantage: The survey’s self-identified independent respondents say they support Walker over Burke by a 13-point margin, 53 percent to 40 percent.
Burke’s campaign, which has been working overtime to address the plagiarism scandal, responded to the new survey with its bravest face, vowing to go into the Nov. 4 midterm elections with everything it has got.
“That this race remains too close to call shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone,” Burke campaign manager Joe Zepecki said in a statement. “Over the last two weeks, Governor Walker has stepped up the mudslinging and false, negative attacks in a desperate attempt to distract from his failed record,” the statement added.
