The surprise announcement yesterday by Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan that he will withdraw from the Maryland governor’s race clears the field for the 2006 battle between Republican incumbent Robert Ehrlich and Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley, who becomes the de facto Democratic nominee.
Citing health reasons — specifically a recent diagnosis of clinical depression — Duncan rather quietly exited stage left from the Democratic primary. The first, most obvious question raised by his departure is, “Who benefits?”
Freed from Duncan’s heel-nipping, O’Malley is the big beneficiary. O’Malley set out in 2005 to run against Duncan by running past him. The mayor’s “general election” strategy was premised on ignoring Duncan until — and unless — the Montgomery executive could prove himself to be a legitimate obstacle on O’Malley’s frontrunner path to the nomination.
By the 2005 holiday season, O’Malley’s approach was working perfectly: During 2005, Duncan spent more money than he raised, was slow on the draw in picking his running mate, and continued to lag well behind O’Malley in the polls.
In the early months of 2006, however, Duncan came out with a strong, go-for-broke strategy that combined early paid media ads and the skilled use of criticizing O’Malley on crime and education. This helped Duncan garner ample coverage from local journalists eager to have a serious Democratic bloodbath as an undercard to the general election fight to unseat Ehrlich.
Duncan’s tactics worked, as he chipped away slightly at O’Malley’s inevitability image — even if Duncan had to burn through what money he had left. He went for broke and, in a sense, he succeeded: His campaign closes with little cash on hand.
Though Duncan probably would not have caught O’Malley by the September 12 primary, his actions did Ehrlich the favor of producing negative O’Malley storylines. The governor would have sat back during a long, hot summer and watched Duncan handle his dirty work. But Duncan is gone, and he endorsed O’Malley on his way out.
Duncan’s sudden departure also provides a paradoxical, silver lining for Ehrlich. Presuming O’Malley would be his eventual opponent come November anyway, with Duncan still in the way the governor was effectively prevented from starting the process of creating his own, negative frames for O’Malley.
Only a week ago did Ehrlich launch the positive media narrative for his own candidacy, the gist of which is that he’s a likeable centrist about whom the state’s moderate-to-liberal electorate ought not to be alarmed.
Of course, a popular incumbent governor cruising to re-election normally doesn’t discuss his challenger unless he has to. Ehrlich has no such luxury, however: A Wall Street Journal poll released yesterday shows Ehrlich trailing O’Malley by 14 points, 53 percent to 39 percent.
So Duncan’s departure allows Ehrlich to begin articulating his negative case against O’Malley without interfering in the Democratic primary in a way that might have backfired and assured O’Malley’s nomination. Because O’Malley was running a general election strategy all along, he’s ahead of Ehrlich in the battle to establish a negative frame on his opponent.
The last piece of the puzzle in the gubernatorial election is Ehrlich’s selection to replace Michael Steele as his Lt. Governor running mate. With the July 3 filing date fast approaching, that announcement may come any moment. As soon as Ehrlich makes his pick, the lineups will be set and the gloves will come off in what promises to be one of the most fierce and closely-followed gubernatorial races in the country.
That the field has finally been cleared for the Ehrlich-O’Malley matchup expected all along has likely cheered both men, albeit for decidedly different reasons.
Thomas F. Schaller is an associate political science professor at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County
