President Trump already is taking potshots at former Attorney General Jeff Sessions, but a further analysis of yesterday’s Alabama Republican primary for the U.S. Senate should give Sessions some hope.
Even though renewed attacks against Sessions from a president who is extremely popular in Alabama will make it difficult for Sessions to defeat former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville in the runoff later this month, Sessions will enjoy a significant geographical advantage.
First, as for Trump. Typically, it was both churlish and false. Sessions finished a close second to Tuberville in the primary despite being favored to run first.
This is what happens to someone who loyally gets appointed Attorney General of the United States & then doesn’t have the wisdom or courage to stare down & end the phony Russia Witch Hunt. Recuses himself on FIRST DAY in office, and the Mueller Scam begins! https://t.co/2jGnRgOS6h
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 4, 2020
This is false. Sessions did not recuse himself until March 2, nearly two months into Trump’s term and three weeks after Sessions himself was confirmed as attorney general. He did so only after being strongly advised by the ethics office of the Justice Department that he ought to do so.
Nonetheless, if Trump continues to berate Sessions publicly, it surely will hurt the former attorney general at the ballot box. All over Alabama, former Sessions supporters repeat the absurd mantra, pushed by Trump, that Sessions somehow “betrayed” Trump.
Nonetheless, Sessions has a big advantage of his own.
There will be two and only two contested Republican runoffs for congressional seats on March 31. There are no runoffs in the 3rd through the 7th congressional districts and few local races to drive turnout. But, in both the 1st District and the 2nd District, the runoffs promise to feature hot and heavy campaigning and massive turnout efforts by their respective candidates.
The 1st District, in southwestern Alabama, is the home territory for both Sessions and third-place Senate contestant Bradley Byrne, the outgoing congressman from the district. In the March 3 primary, Byrne finished first in each county in the district, Sessions a reasonably close second, and Tuberville a distant third.
In the 2nd District, in southeastern Alabama, Sessions carried 10 of the 13 counties, including the population centers, and came in second in the other three (two to Tuberville, one to Byrne), each of them lightly populated.
Sessions also finished well ahead of Tuberville (with more than twice Tuberville’s vote total) in the only other county Byrne carried, the one containing the city of Huntsville, in which a highly educated electorate tends to vote more regularly no matter what races are on the ballot.
In sum, the heavy voter turnout in the runoff will certainly be in those parts of the state where Sessions is strongest. The areas where Tuberville is strongest are likely to feature far lighter turnout. Trump or no Trump, that gives Sessions a fighting chance, although he will need to run a savvy and energetic campaign to consolidate his geographic advantage.
