We’ve all heard about the coming blue wave. But what if there’s a red wave in November? For a host of reasons, that’s not likely, but voters in a new generic ballot survey actually gave Republican congressional candidates a modest edge over the competition, lending credence to mounting skepticism of the expected Democratic wave.
Reuters is now showing an advantage for Republicans in both its five-day rolling and its weekly poll results. The poll for the full week ending on May 20 found Republicans up on Democrats by a stunning six-point margin (40.7 percent to 34.5 percent). Democrats had led the GOP by a still-modest three points just the week before.
In both polls, the gap seems to have started moving in Republicans’ direction around late April.
Reuters’ findings are outliers compared with the Real Clear Politics generic ballot average as of May 19, in which Democrats still held a four point advantage. As more polls are taken, we’ll get a clearer idea of whether the Reuters polls were just flukes. Skepticism is very much warranted until additional polling reflects similar trends.
When it comes to being cautiously optimistic, Republicans should still very much emphasize caution over optimism in that equation. But it’s starting to look like Democrats should do the same, and study how factors like a strong economy and GOP-lead progress on the international stage could be making a bigger difference for Republicans than they anticipated.
