On Tuesday night during an interview on Fox News with Tucker Carlson, President Trump questioned whether the U.S. would defend Montenegro, a NATO member, if the country was attacked. He then proposed that aggression by a NATO member country could lead to World War III.
Trump is wrong on both counts. Yes, the U.S. should defend Montenegro if it is attacked. And no, aggression from one member country won’t create a world war.
During the televised interview, Carlson asked Trump, “Let’s say Montenegro, which joined last year, is attacked. Why should my son go to Montenegro to defend it from attack?”
Trump responded saying, “I understand what you’re saying. I’ve asked the same question.” This response undermines a core tenant of NATO. Specifically, Article 5 of the NATO treaty: that an attack on one member of the alliance “shall be considered an attack against them all.” Originally, this agreement to come to the aid of member nations was a defense against the Soviet Union.
To counter the influence of communism and authoritarian governments, NATO’s mutual defense pact was meant to safeguarded European nations against Soviet aggression and deter the USSR from claiming more countries as satellite republics.
In the modern world, although the aggressors might be different, the pact remains important.
The U.S., being the only member to have invoked Article 5 and called on allies for defense in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, should recognize this. Indeed, even Montenegro with a population of about 620,000, has contributed troops to the ongoing war in Afghanistan.
The existence of the mutual defense provision as a deterrent is also likely the reason why Russia has targeted aggression in Ukraine rather than NATO member states like Latvia, Estonia, or Lithuania. This would also be the reason that Russia was fiercely opposed to Montenegro joining NATO with Russia being accused of instigating a failed coup to topple the pro-Western government and prevent the country from joining the alliance.
Without a staunch commitment from the U.S. to uphold the obligations outlined in NATO’s treaty, the deterrence and assured protection are meaningless and member nations again susceptible to the very sort of attacks that the alliance sought to prevent. This would be bad for the U.S. as we depend on a free and stable Europe and North America for both our own security but also as our largest trading partners.
The second part of the president’s response to Carlson’s question added, “You know, Montenegro is a tiny country with very strong people. … They might get aggressive, and congratulations, you’re in World War III.”
Here Trump is wrong again – and all he would have had to do was actually read the NATO treaty to know.
Article 5 only compels member nations to defend each other if they are attacked. If a nation were to “get aggressive” and go on the offensive, then no nation would be bound to join in the attack and they likely wouldn’t. Trump’s dire warning about an imminent World War III are unfounded and misleading.
Although both the Senate and the House of Representatives support NATO and approved resolutions supporting the organization before Trump attended the summit in Brussels, the misunderstandings Trump perpetuates are likely shared by many Americans who don’t know anything about the alliance and probably couldn’t place Montenegro on a map.
That larger, underlying issue, of course, is that Americans are ill-informed on foreign affairs and are willing to take the president’s word rather than engage with ideas themselves.
There is a real danger to this ignorance. If Americans, like Trump, fail to understand the importance of such alliances as NATO, not only are countries like Montenegro susceptible to threats against their sovereignty and freedom but the U.S. loses the allies, trading partners, and stability that has formed the basis of our current success and power in the post-World War II world order.
