Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Wednesday outlined his final gambit for a Brexit withdrawal deal. It aims to address the so-called “Irish backstop” issue to earn Parliamentary and European Union support for a broader Brexit deal.
The basic foundation of Johnson’s new plan is to establish a European Union compatible standard for trade flows across both the Republic of Ireland and the British territory of Northern Ireland.
It’s clearly a long shot.
Parliament has restricted Johnson’s ability to leave the European Union on Oct. 31st unless it has first validated any withdrawal agreement. That hasn’t happened as of yet — each plan has been rejected. While Johnson’s latest gambit might attract a few more votes, it’s unlikely. At the same time, the European Union has not responded positively to Johnson’s new plan. The Irish government appears opposed to it, and top European powers such as France are not keen to give Johnson new concessions.
This leaves Johnson in a pretty absurd situation. Parliament is incredibly divided on the issue of Brexit, but opposition parties won’t agree to a new election that they fear will boost Johnson’s position, even though that’s what it will take to establish a majority for a Brexit plan. That means Johnson is stuck between his agenda and a parliament dedicated to inertia. He has very few options.
If this final gambit fails Johnson will have just three choices remaining. Accept Parliament’s ruling and ask the European Union to delay Brexit (something that would almost certainly ruin his premiership); resign as prime minister; or try to get around the law and force a no-deal Brexit as scheduled, on Oct. 31. His most likely option is the third.
