Nearly 30 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, socialism is on the rise again. In the United Kingdom we see it with the Labour Party’s elevation of Jeremy Corbyn as party leader — Corbyn being one of the most “Old Labour,” socialism-happy politicians in recent British history. In the U.S., we began to see it in 2016 with the rise of Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. In 2019, we continue seeing it with his polling strength in the 2020 presidential race and the rise of figures like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y.
We see it, too, in polling. According to Gallup numbers released just before Memorial Day weekend, 43% of Americans now see socialism as a “good thing” for America. That is an 18-point shift in socialism’s favor from 1942, and on spec, it’s good cause for free market-minded folks to be shocked and worried about America’s future trajectory.
But there’s good news, too—at least on this side of the pond. While more Americans may be embracing the term “socialism,” Gallup’s polling shows that more of us are also rejecting it. On a vast array of policy matters, Americans are giving a thumbs-down to big government, too; the areas where they are not are pretty big standard examples of where one doesn’t need to be a socialist to think a little government is tolerable or even beneficial.
While Gallup’s data does show a big swing towards favorable views of socialism, it shows close to the same shift towards Americans seeing it as a “bad thing.” In 1942, 40% of Americans saw socialism negatively; now, 51% do.
When it comes to technological innovation, the distribution of wealth, the economy overall, wages, higher education and yes, even healthcare, Gallup’s data shows that Americans reject socialism and its far more benign, but still problematic, cousin: Big Government.
About 75% want the free market to be responsible for technological innovation, 68% prefer that it determine the distribution of wealth, 62% prefer that the free market be responsible for what happens in “the economy overall” and with regard to wages. And 56% want the free market, not government, in the driver’s seat with regard to higher education. Even with the massive surge in support for single-payer healthcare and what feels like increased U.S.-based rhetorical support for actual socialized medicine, as exists in the U.K., 53% still want the free market in charge where healthcare is concerned. Only in the realms of protecting consumer privacy online and environmental protection do majorities want the government in charge.
This is critical, because even while academic research shows that voters tend to gravitate to politicians they like and then conform their policy positions to them, rather than voting on policy as most people reading this probably do, the reality is that there’s a mismatch between what the Sandersnistas and Ocasio-Cortez disciples think is an electoral seller and what statistically appears to be. That camp in American politics is campaigning on single-payer healthcare policies, but it’s not a stretch to imagine they’d prefer a full U.K.-style NHS since it presents better options for cost-control without which “Medicare For all” will fail on a sheer mathematical basis. They’re also advocating things like hard interest rate caps attached to various financial products and policies, when a “fintech” boom is underway and when, potentially, three-quarters of Americans would oppose that if you count it under the “technological innovation” category. And, of course, they want government a lot more responsible for determining wages, wealth distribution, and so on.
All of this looks unpopular based on what Gallup has found. That is a problem, to the extent that Sanders or Ocasio-Cortez really want to dive deep into policy.
Sanders may be an appealing figure because he’s older, lovable-whacky-great-uncle-like, and sounds utterly unscripted (Gallup polling would probably show these characteristics are far more appealing than, say, the concept of massive wealth redistribution, socialist-style). Ocasio-Cortez may be appealing because she’s young, fresh, cuts funny videos, displays passion for public service, works harder than career politicians, and, yes, is photogenic. But the actual policies sold by both are risky. Their opponents and critics, Democrat and Republican, know it.
Look at the effort that candidates like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg have made to underline their capitalist credentials while still advocating big-government policies. Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., may look like many things (a “cop” to many liberal critics, or a panderer to the left to more centrist critics). But she’s been careful not to look like another iteration of Sanders or Ocasio-Cortez, too. Former Vice President Joe Biden’s record could easily lead one to conclude he’s more government-friendly than, say, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, — but again, it’s clearly not socialist or even on the truly “big government” end of the Democratic spectrum. Biden will likely keep it that way—his best bet is campaigning on some return to normalcy, and keeping America a generally free-market country, with maybe a little more big government here or there but not enough to run afoul of these numbers.
Yes, the term “socialism” is less triggering than perhaps it was for past generations. That’s worrying, because it suggests the public-at-large doesn’t understand the core meaning of a term they could end up unwittingly voting for. But plain old big government still isn’t nearly the hot ticket for Americans that Sanders, Ocasio-Cortez, and other like-minded politicians wish.
That’s cause for comfort if you are a free-marketeer.
Liz Mair is the founder, owner, and president of Mair Strategies LLC, a boutique strategic consulting firm that works on financial services and tech policy issues. She is a dual US-UK national and a longtime critic of Britain’s National Health Service.
