Kim Jong Un is up to something.
Referring to Trump, the North Korean leader issued a statement on Thursday, threatening to “tame the mentally deranged U.S. dotard with fire.” Kim added, “I will make the man holding the prerogative of the supreme command in the U.S. pay dearly for his speech calling for totally destroying [North Korea].”
Kim’s words follow President Trump’s U.N. address, this week, in which he warned he would “totally destroy” North Korea if it continues its intercontinental ballistic missile program.
But while Kim’s soaring rhetoric is standard North Korean fare, that he has staked his personal credibility here suggests near-term action is looming. Indeed, Kim stated explicitly that “action is the best option.”
So what might he be planning?
Well, in warning “Whatever Trump might have expected, he will face results beyond his expectation,” Kim indicates whatever he does will shock the U.S. president. And that’s concerning in that Kim knows that Trump knows he’s capable of unpredictable acts: He knows it would take a lot to shock Trump.
In turn, we cannot rule out some kind of North Korean military strike on U.S., South Korean, or Japanese interests. While that prospect might seem unbelievable in risking overwhelming retaliation, Kim Jong Un’s rationality cannot be taken for granted. I would assess that Japanese or South Korean interests are especially at risk. Kim may believe he can strike their interests and avoid reflexive U.S. retaliation. (Recall, for example, the 2010 North Korean torpedo strike on a South Korean naval vessel.)
Alternatively, Kim may be planning an escalated nuclear or missile test. It is noteworthy that Kim pledged to consider the “highest level of hard-line countermeasure in history,” because North Korea refers to its nuclear forces in similar ways. The nuclear possibility also has added potential in that the North Korean foreign minister suggested the countermeasure could mean “the most powerful detonation of an H-bomb in the Pacific.” A key point here is that if the North Koreans able to effect their detonation via ICBM delivery, it would effectively signal their arrival at a full nuclear capability. In addition, even if the ballistic missile plus warhead was targeted at the open Pacific Ocean, its necessary trajectory would raise concerns of a threat to Japan or Hawaii.
Ultimately, as John Schindler has explained, it’s impossible to really know what is going on in Kim’s head. Other possibilities as to what he might do could include a North Korean cyberattack, or military exercise in proximity to the demilitarized zone.
Trump should ensure U.S. forces in the region have sufficient assets to prevent or mitigate any attack.
