It has become popular for upstart Democrats to disassociate with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., at the same time it has become habit for Republicans to campaign against the minority leader. The Ohio special election this Tuesday then provides a telling dress rehearsal for how the Pelosi factor will play in the midterm elections.
Danny O’Connor is the Democrat running for the historically red seat vacated by Republican Rep. Pat Tiberi after 18 years. To be competitive in the conservative district, O’Connor distanced himself from Pelosi early on in the race and pledged to support “a new generation of leadership.” It was a smart centrist strategy not unlike the one Democrat Rep. Conor Lamb employed to win in Pennsylvania Trump country.
And it was working well for O’Connor until he wilted under questioning from Chris Matthews on MSNBC. He admitted that he would support whoever Democrats nominated for speaker.
Republicans pounced on O’Connor, and deservedly so.
Republicans aren’t talking about their own accomplishments ahead of the election. Republicans are talking about how O’Connor is a stealth Pelosi supporter prepared to vote for her and for open borders the moment he gets to Capitol Hill.
So far the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, R-Wis., has hurled the majority of these attacks. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, they’ve dropped more than $3 million on the race so far.
Conventional political wisdom backs up this approach. Pelosi hasn’t been a beloved figure in the Midwest for some time now. But the question is whether Pelosi is despised enough to drive Republican voters to the polls. We will find out shortly after polls close Tuesday night when, depending on the result, GOP consultants could be in for a rude shock.
If Republicans can’t run on the supposedly awful possibility of a second Pelosi speakership, they will have to run on their own merits, which include important but decidedly unsexy accomplishments like tax reform. If that’s the case, the GOP will have wasted a lot of breath and even more money trying to skewer candidates with the Pelosi issue.
O’Connor faces off against Republican Troy Balderson in the special election on Tuesday.
