Bizarrely volatile market swings in the past two months, especially this week, will necessitate deft footwork from policymakers to ward off a potential panic.
The Federal Reserve Board meets Monday. The Fed governors and President Trump both need to use it to send just the right reassuring signals.
First, a recap: The markets tanked in October, swung wildly in November, and then went south this past week with a vengeance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped a massive 800 points on Tuesday, closed on Wednesday in remembrance of George H.W. Bush, and then was down some 700 points again for most of yesterday. Very late yesterday, mere rumors that the Fed might not bump interest rates as planned caused a sudden rally erasing the day’s earlier rout. Friday, though, the rout reappeared, with the Dow down 400 points at mid-day.
As noted in this space many times before, three factors are causing the volatility and general downward trend. First is the president’s foolish pursuit of trade wars. Second is a growing understanding that both public and private debt are unsustainable, meaning there’s no safety net under the economy. Third is the inordinate fear, among many investors, of even minor interest-rate hikes.
Trump and Congress have blown any chance in the current “lame duck” session at solving problem number two. As for Trump’s foolish assumption of the “Tariff Man” persona earlier this week, it did massive damage. But actions are louder than words, and that can still be reversed.
Finally, when it comes to interest rates, both Trump and the Fed can still sound the right notes.
The problem is not that interest rates are high enough to seriously deter business investment. In fact, rates are still well below the post-WWII norm. Instead, the problem is that 10 years of “quantitative easing” have accustomed markets to unusually low rates, such that even a small hike now looks frightening — especially because Trump loudly feeds those unwarranted fears. Yet those with a long-term outlook are worried that if the Fed doesn’t keep inflation in check now, inflation could suddenly erupt soon, necessitating much larger, faster rate hikes down the line.
If the Fed looks like it is bowing to Trump’s pressure to keep rates lower than it had earlier indicated, its independence will look compromised. But if it raises rates Monday without some reassurance to those who think a single hike is an apocalypse, this week’s rout could become a recessionary panic.
The solution? A two-step by the president and the Fed.
Trump should say, today: “Today’s jobs report shows continuing record-low unemployment of 3.7 percent. I have made clear my disagreement with the Federal Reserve’s plans for a series of slow rate hikes, but today’s economy, thanks to me, is so strong that even if the Fed hikes rates on Monday, the economy can easily take it in stride. Either way, I’ll be angry if the Fed takes the same rate-hiking policy into next year that it has pursued in 2018.”
In turn, the Fed on Monday should implement the small rate hike it had previously indicated was coming, thus reinforcing its commitment to keep inflation low. But in its accompanying statement, it should say that its outlook going forward has moved away from an expectation for further rate hikes, back to “neutral.”
“The economy is not overheating,” it should say, “but instead, like Goldilocks’ third bowl of porridge, is just about right. With today’s rate hike in place, inflationary pressures will be well in check, so we foresee a period of rate stability in the new year.”
Bingo. Everybody wins. All sides will be reassured, and market volatility should ease.
