As the New Year dawns, old challenges hang on.
One of the biggest challenges relates to the ambience of climate-change science.
So many folks are invested in an expectation of disastrous geophysical conditions resulting from modern lifestyles that are fueled by ancient energy sources. So, the big money (in the trillions of dollars) is on the continuation of supposed wacky weather, hustled as proof of long-term, global climate change.
But here are five reasons to remain unconvinced that humans are culpable for such acts of nature.
1. Actual data trumps forecasts. No matter how you measure it, the global average temperature trend has flattened out over the past decade and a half. Even so, the tiny fraction of a degree increase in temperature expected for 2014 over previous years will be hailed as being the highest on record. Despite this almost meaningless increase, there is a distinct possibility that temperatures will be once more dropping as solar activity and ocean circulations relentlessly work to redistribute heat across the globe.
2. Carbon dioxide makes up only 0.04% of the atmosphere. Compare this small percentage with water, which is the dominant climate regulator. Water, in the vapor phase at 0% through 4% of atmospheric concentration and in the liquid and solid phases, is apparently the biggest climate controller on the planet.
3. The purveyors of a long-term human-caused global climate change catastrophe constantly confuse weather with climate and cherry pick data to aggravate public angst over future meteorological mayhem. This permits, for example, huckster politicians to push what is often referred to as “the social cost of carbon.” This phrase should not be confused with any balanced assessment, such as a traditional Cost-Benefit Analysis, which would likely put some much-needed perspective back into any reasonable deliberation of climate concerns.
4. No matter how brilliant climate prognosticators are, nor how sophisticated their algorithms and super their computers, they are far from knowing with sufficient certainty the far future. This is one reason they deserve a skeptical eye, for the allegedly absolute certainty of the “settled science” as the linchpin of the case made to the public.
5. Finally, real human misery requires immediate attention, and access to low-cost fossil fuels goes a long way to alleviating suffering. At least a billion people don’t have access to modern energy, living instead off truly dirty fuel sources such as smoky wood and dried dung. A mere one percent increase in so-called carbon pollution would be enough to lift up a billion of the world’s poor. As cheap, clean, abundant energy powers people out of poverty, high-cost policies empower and enrich politicians and their enablers, who hope to profit from carbon hysteria. Thus, the incentive for meaningful changes is weak, unfortunately given the powerlessness of those who would benefit.
So this New Year, for the sake of the Earth and its inhabitants, when it comes to climate futures, we need to resolve to invest in less profit-driven science, and be more guarded and less gullible with the diviners of disaster. More than a billion people will thank us.
Anthony J. Sadar, a Certified Consulting Meteorologist, is author of In Global Warming We Trust: A Heretic’s Guide to Climate Science (Telescope Books, 2012). Thinking of submitting an op-ed to the Washington Examiner? Be sure to read our guidelines on submissions for editorials, available at this link.
