Click here for part I, part II and part III.
March 2, 2016 – Novi, Mich.
Fresh off a slew of victories on Super Tuesday, Marco Rubio rallies in Michigan before the state’s March 8 primary.
“I’m going to bring out a special guest who knows a thing or two about Michigan. Most importantly, he knows the trees here are the right height,” Rubio says prompting laughter. “He knows how to win the Michigan primary. Twice! And he knows that we are going to win the primary here on Tuesday, then go all the way to the White House and a new American century!”
Mitt Romney walks on stage to give Rubio his enthusiastic endorsement. Romney says he’s long admired Rubio’s ability to inspire Americans from all walks of life.
It’s no secret that Romney’s no fan of the all-or-nothing negotiation tactics Ted Cruz uses in Congress. Now that the list of Republican contenders has narrowed to Cruz and Rubio, Romney hopes his endorsement, the biggest yet of 2016, will make Rubio unstoppable.
March 15, 2016 – Florida, Ohio and other major primaries
But there are still three other candidates nipping at the heels of Cruz and Rubio.
Rand Paul wins the caucus in his home state of Kentucky on March 5, but drops out after single-digit finishes in the five states voting on March 15.
John Kasich pins all his hopes on his winner-take-all home state of Ohio. Prior to the vote, polls show that Ohioans give Kasich high approval ratings but think he should drop out of the presidential race because of his long odds. When Cruz narrowly beats Rubio there and Kasich finishes a distant third, he obliges his constituents.
Jeb Bush and his establishment backers are down but not out. Bush’s strategy relies on winning Florida’s 99 delegates to get him back in contention. His super PAC spends every last dollar it has against Rubio there. Jeb’s father and brother, who between them went four-for-four in the state in general elections, join him on the campaign trail.
In the end, Rubio ekes out a 5-point victory. Exit polls reveal that Floridians saw him as more likely than Bush to win the nomination. Bush ends his campaign that night in an emotional concession speech.
“I firmly believe the American people must entrust this office to someone who understands that whoever holds it is a servant, not the master. Someone who will commit to that service with honor and decency,” Bush said.
As the GOP primary calendar starts to spread out, it’s down to Cruz vs. Rubio.
April 7, 2016 – Trump Tower, New York
Ted Cruz grabs momentum in the race for the GOP nomination. Backed by an endorsement from Gov. Scott Walker, he wins Wisconsin by 20 points.
Then, he receives the mother of all endorsements — from the man, the myth, the legend himself: Donald J. Trump.
“We’re not going to let Little Marco be president, are we? No, no, no,” Trump shouts at a Cruz rally, as the senator stands behind him smiling. “He supports shameful amnesty for illegal immigrants. Many people are calling it ‘shamnesty.’ I think that sounds good, don’t you? Ted Cruz won’t support shamnesty. He’s going to build a big, beautiful wall. And when it’s done everyone will thank me, because if it weren’t for me, nobody would be talking about the illegals.”
But 11 days later, when Rubio wins three-quarters of New York’s delegates, Trump is silent. Moderate Republicans in New York City push Rubio past 60 percent of the vote. Turns out the long-awaited Trump endorsement wasn’t much help.
The rest of the map isn’t exactly super-conservative: Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, etc. Rubio sweeps them as the establishment-like candidate. He gets a narrow victory in Pennsylvania. After coming up short by 20 points in Indiana despite Gov. Mike Pence’s endorsement, Cruz sees the writing on the wall. He drops out.
Without Trump in the race, Rubio becomes the 2016 GOP nominee.
July 28, 2016 – Philadelphia, Pa.
The 2016 Democratic primary leaves Hillary Clinton bruised — literally.
Starting in late 2015, Bernie Sanders seizes a wave of populism sweeping the country and gives Clinton the fight of her life.
It starts in Iowa, where preliminary results make Clinton the victor, but only thanks to a few coin flips that go her way.
At a mid-February rally before the Nevada Caucus, Clinton sees a teenage girl with a custom-made American flag. In the corner, instead of a blue field with white stars, it has a white background and Clinton’s “H” logo. She makes an offhand remark to advisor Huma Abedin, “How cool! We should sell those.”
When it shows up in her campaign store a week later, Clinton is widely criticized for selfishly desecrating the flag. The item is pulled down within two days. When someone finds out the surplus flags were thrown away, Clinton gets criticized again for not retiring the flags in a proper flag burning ceremony.
Then came the bad news from Iowa. Clinton hadn’t won after all. The preliminary results were wrong, and the certified results give Sanders the edge.
Then, on the eve of Super Tuesday, an accident happens. Given Sanders’ wide lead with young voters, Clinton is resorting to kitschy photo-ops to try to seem cool.
While visiting with voters at a country bar, Clinton decides to do a photo-op on a mechanical bull. But she loses her balance. Clinton falls to the ground, hitting her head and injuring her hip. There’s no concussion, but Clinton has to go to great lengths to hide her new limp every time she walks in public.
The worst part: The mechanical bull wasn’t even turned on.
Those gaffes, in addition to unrelenting attacks from Republicans over her emails and the Clinton Foundation, begin to hurt Clinton’s poll numbers.
But thanks to the tens of millions of dollars her super PAC raised, Clinton floods the airwaves with negative ads against Sanders. She’s attacked as a hypocrite for railing against money in politics and relying on it to win, but it keeps her in the race.
In the end, Clinton and Sanders are within 100 pledged delegates of each other. Clinton had 300 more superdelegates than Sanders, but Sanders convinces 150 of them to switch before the convention.
Clinton wins the nomination, but the brutal fight leaves Democrats demoralized and low on cash.
Look out for part V on November 4. What will happen in the general election campaign? Will third party candidates have any impact? Who will be the running mates? It’s Rubio against Clinton: a “New American Century” vs. a re-run of the Clinton 1990s.
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
