Police in Brandenburg, Germany have arrested a 17-year-old asylum seeker. He is believed to have been plotting a suicide attack. While German authorities are hedging on whether an attack was imminent, that the suspect was arrested by special forces is interesting. It points to a concern that the suspect was in possession of lethal weapons (possibly explosives, firearms or something else).
We shouldn’t be surprised by this news. In recent years, Germany has faced numerous attack plots from asylum-seeking jihadists.
The cause of that threat is clear. Since 2015, Chancellor Angela Merkel has allowed more than 1 million refugees and economic migrants into Germany. Her moral motivations were pure. Yet German authorities have struggled to keep tabs on terrorists hiding in the ranks of those refugees.
Yes, the vast majority are law-abiding and grateful for their better lives. But among them are dozens of members of the Islamic State. Just last September, German authorities caught three Syrians who were plotting major Islamic State attacks in Europe.
That was just one of many major counter-terrorism operations since 2014. Still, as I noted following the truck attack on a Berlin Christmas market, the problem Germany faces is actually quite simple.
They have too many terrorists to monitor, and not enough resources.
To successfully monitor one terrorist suspect over a 24-hour period, more than 20 human surveillance officers are needed. While the German intelligence services are well-trained and equipped, they cannot prevent attacks simply by monitoring a suspect’s calls or emails.
And in 2017, the rise of encrypted communications platforms makes even that difficult. This bears special attention in this latest case: The suspect was apparently caught after sending messages via the WhatsApp communication program.
Correspondingly, the Germans must decide who poses the greatest threat and throw maximal resources at that target. At the same time, they must spread their finite resources across the pool of other suspects. And then, like the British intelligence services vis-a-vis Manchester, they can only hope that their threat assessments are correct.
There’s a great moral quandary at play here.
On the one hand Germany wants to help innocents escape brutal tyranny and torture. And again, they know that most of those they help are just that: Innocent victims, individuals who wish to escape their past and build better lives for their families. At the same time, Germany has a responsibility to its own citizens. It must do what is necessary to protect them. And at present, the former imperative is degrading the second.
Ultimately, the German people must decide what risks they can bear. But with elections coming in September, the political question of moral opportunity versus exigent security is not going away. And if, God forbid, a terrorist attack should occur before then, Merkel will face a crisis. Her policy has already catalyzed a rising anti-immigration party, Alternative for Germany. They, as much as the Islamic State, are waiting and watching.
