Former President Barack Obama and former Secretary of State John Kerry depicted their July 2015 nuclear deal with Iran as a new beginning to avert war and perhaps even to make peace possible. “The progress of Iran’s nuclear program was halted for the first time in a decade,” Obama declared.
Iran subsequently tested ballistic missiles nine times, suffering little more than a few angry words from U.N. Ambassador Samantha Power.
But, after testing a 10th missile on Jan. 29, President Trump’s team threw down the gauntlet: National Security Advisor Mike Flynn responded by “officially putting Iran on notice,” and Trump himself tweeted that Iran was “playing with fire.”
There’s nothing wrong with a no-nonsense approach. Obama and Kerry seemed to care more with preserving the fiction that the nuclear deal was working than with the reality that, at best, it was riddled with loopholes that Iran sought to exploit and, at worst, Iranian authorities were increasingly in violation. There is no reason why the White House or State Department should play Iran’s lawyers.
But, there is danger in speaking loudly while waving a small stick. Flynn’s warning to Iran replicated the worst of Obama: utilizing red lines as a rhetorical tool without the preparation and will to enforce the threat. Flynn should know that deterrence is less a rhetorical strategy than a military one.
But, on Trump’s inauguration, the United States Navy had no aircraft carriers in the vicinity of Iran for the first time in 25 years. Nor is there any military action on the horizon absent a visit by Defense Secretary Jim Mattis to the Persian Gulf states and Israel because, after all, they are the ones likely to suffer Iranian retaliation for U.S. any action.
If the Iranian military hears bellicose rhetoric from Washington but its burgeoning UAV fleet spots no U.S. ships off its coast, then it is going to conclude that the U.S. is a paper tiger. That can embolden Iran’s leaders almost as much as Obama and Kerry’s fear and fealty.
What should the U.S. do?
First, it could station two carrier strike groups in the northern Indian Ocean. Tehran fears an Indian Ocean deployment more than one in the Persian Gulf because, from the Indian Ocean, the U.S. Navy can strike at Iran, but the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp’s small boats would not have the range to strike at U.S. ships. That doesn’t make military action inevitable, but it does give credibility to diplomacy.
Second, enough with piecemeal sanctions. Simply put, designated IRGC generals won’t want to go to Disneyland anyway until Minnie Mouse is veiled. The most dangerous legacy of Obama-era nuclear dealing was providing the IRGC with a windfall at least ten times its official annual $5 billion budget, and that doesn’t include the investment income that companies it controls have reaped. It is time to sanction the entire IRGC for its support of terrorism.
Third, support the Iranian people. Forget outside activists and political movements — most are just 40 men and a newspaper. Instead, challenge the European left and green parties to support independent Iranian trade unions. After all, who has more to fear from the political organization of the Iranian public? Iran’s corrupt leadership, or the outside world? The more the Iranian government has to pay back salaries to its employees, the less money it has for its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
Fourth, it’s time to use Voice of America smartly. U.S. government broadcasting should focus entirely on what the target country’s own media isn’t allowed to report. That’s how you build an audience. So, let’s expose bank accounts and corruption, and do it in a way that 80 million Iranians can hear.
Fifth, don’t walk away from the nuclear deal, but hold Tehran to it. Iran is already testing advanced centrifuges. Here are Iran’s red lines. Test every single one. Obama’s response to Iranian refusal to allow inspections at military sites was to allow self-testing, something akin to allowing Super Bowl players to test their own urine. It’s time to ensure that tests occur often. Don’t excuse excess heavy water production, but outline specific consequences for Iran not upholding its end of the deal.
And, lastly, love or hate the nuclear deal, the clock is already ticking down to its end. So, it’s time to start building leverage for the day after. When the deal expires, restrictions are lifted, and Iran is left with a fully-resourced, industrial-scale nuclear agreement, what will the U.S. do?
Answering that question will demonstrate leadership much more than simply “putting Iran on notice.”
Michael Rubin (@mrubin1971) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. He is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a former Pentagon official.
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