The warning signs for Democrats in 2022 are continuing to pile up.
The biggest sign of where things may be going is the retirement of Democratic Rep. Ron Kind, who announced he would not be running for reelection for his Wisconsin seat. Kind represents a district that former President Donald Trump won by almost 5 points in 2020, and Kind himself escaped his GOP opponent by just 2.6% last November. Without a battle-tested incumbent to defend the seat, Republicans now have the inside track on another seat with Democrats holding a slim House majority.
Rep. Sean Maloney, the New York Democrat in charge of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, has told vulnerable Democrats in a closed-door meeting that Republicans lead by 6 points on the generic ballot in battleground districts. Democrats currently hold 220 seats in the House (with two vacant seats that will elect Democrats in special elections in the coming months). The magic number to make a majority is 218.
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden’s approval is continuing to deteriorate. According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, Biden’s approval sits at its lowest point in his presidency at 49.7%. While his approval has steadily dropped, his disapproval rating is continuing to rise. Biden’s approval is underwater on crime, immigration, and gun violence. A majority of adults are pessimistic about the direction of the country. His approval rating is also falling among independents.
Biden’s one calling card during his presidency has been his handling of the pandemic. But his approval on that issue has also continued to decline. As the delta variant continues to spread, Biden has continued to focus on things that don’t make sense and do little to actually protect people from the virus, such as advocating for mandatory masking for children even as they return to school.
The president’s party has lost an average of 30 seats in midterm elections since 2002. While a favorable Senate map may give Democrats a chance to expand their majority in the upper chamber, the House majority is continuing to trend away from them.
