Now that the midterm elections are a thing of the past, the 2020 presidential election is in full swing. Although there remains a fair amount of MAGA momentum, the Republican Party should not take any of its support for granted. If the 2016 election was about answering eight years of former President Barack Obama with a GOP response and beating an “inevitable” Democratic candidate, this round is about fighting to maintain somewhat crumbling control.
At present, President Trump is in the midst of a storm. Among other things, his former lackey and attorney, Michael Cohen, is now a convicted felon facing three years in prison, the Russia investigation continues to swirl, and the new year holds the promise of little more than congressional deadlock. Though his chief concern, tackling illegal immigration, is popular with his adoring electorate, his manner of attack doesn’t seem to sit well with some fellow Republicans.
The GOP base that elected him swooned during his White House meeting with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., earlier this week. In a rare display, those three argued, rather embarrassingly, in front of the media and a quiet Vice President Mike Pence. That televised contention is a perfect snapshot of the country’s division as we head into 2019. But while the president presented a strong front in the face of the disagreeing Democrats seated next to him, it seems the Republicans on Capitol Hill are much less enthusiastic about immediately addressing the wall, and funding, than those they represent:
In many ways, Trump is now a one-man show. As he speaks about his desire for wall funding and once again threatens to shut down the government if need be, the GOP members in the House are dragging their feet. This doesn’t bode well for the president going forward.
According to a new Fox News poll, 39 percent of voters believe Trump will win re-election. This may seem low, but it is actually higher than the 29 percent Obama received in December 2010. However, Trump’s reputation as a difficult individual who is given over to publicly insulting others is vastly different than how Obama was perceived. While the former president’s policies were anti-conservative, his personality was distinctly more mellow.
These polling numbers are bound to change given the congressional future that is right around the corner. If Trump decides to work with House Democrats, the percentage of those who believe he’ll win in 2020 may rise. However, his readiness to ridicule along with an unwillingness to compromise may chip away at the current confidence. Furthermore, the House GOP doesn’t seem to be on the same page as the president, even in the waning days of their majority. Now imagine when they’re relegated to the minority come January. They’ll either be blamed for not putting up a fight against their more numerous opponents or chastised for their Trump-fueled dissent.
It is more than evident that Trump’s already-mounting frustrations are set to increase. The wave that propelled him to prominence among Republican candidates was fueled by distrust in an elitist establishment. Now, he is firmly planted within the type of swamp-like environment he ran against.
The brash certainty of 2016 has given way to the unknown of 2020. Democrats, encouraged by midterm gains, are eager to take the president down. Republicans, blindsided by a small, yet noticeable, blue wave, question whether their polarizing leader’s approach is best.
If the president is unable to allay growing concerns about his questionable past and fractured present, voters may usher in a real wave of change in the not-so-distant future.
Kimberly Ross (@SouthernKeeks) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog and a senior contributor at RedState.com.
