The Iowa presidential caucuses begin on Monday evening, bringing the Democratic Party one step closer to determining who its presidential nominee will be this November. Based on how many of the 2,100 precinct delegates he or she win tonight, each candidate will eventually lay claim at the state party convention to his or her share of the 41 national convention delegates up for grabs (plus an additional eight unpledged superdelegates).
That isn’t much, considering that the candidate will need 1,991 national delegates total to win the nomination. But whoever wins tonight’s caucuses will have the political momentum necessary to remain competitive.
It’s hard to say who will come out on top of Iowa’s caucus, in part because of the unique nature of the system. Each of the Democratic candidates must get support from at least 15% of caucusgoers in order to win any of the precinct delegates. If Amy Klobuchar, for example, doesn’t reach 15%, her supporters must then decide to support a different candidate (or leave). These are the voters who will determine the final results, and they’re also the reason Iowa is clouded in so much uncertainty.
The majority of Democratic voters have vowed to be flexible if their preferred candidate doesn’t reach viability. But others — most notably, Andrew Yang’s base, as well as Bernie Sanders’s and Pete Buttigieg’s — have said they will not support anyone but their preferred candidate. Because of this, it’s almost impossible to predict which candidate these voters will realign to support.
Still, the top four Iowa candidates are fairly predictable. Right now, it looks like Bernie Sanders is leading the race, with Joe Biden coming in second, Pete Buttigieg trailing in third, and Warren in fourth.
Here’s what each candidate needs from Iowa:
Bernie Sanders needs to win. The Vermont senator has gained significant ground recently, but Biden is still leading the race nationally. Sanders has the chance to change that tonight. And recent numbers suggest he might do just that: One of the final major Iowa surveys had him ahead of Biden by nine points, and this weekend he attracted the largest crowd for any Democratic candidate this cycle.
Winning Iowa would make it that much easier for Sanders to win the Feb. 11 New Hampshire primary, where he has an even stronger lead.
Even if Sanders does win Iowa, he will still have to face the question of electability during the general election against President Trump. Losing Iowa would mean Democratic voters had decided that question for him.
Joe Biden needs to maintain a strong presence. There’s a good chance Biden loses both Iowa and New Hampshire to Sanders. But don’t count Biden out just yet: The former Vice President continues to dominate in the national polls, despite his modest events and mediocre debate performances.
This could be because Biden’s familiarity and his straightforward platform have made him an easy choice, especially among older voters. Sanders, on the other hand, tends to do better among younger voters. Typically, older voters are more reliable, which is good news for Biden.
Biden also needs to solidify his position as the leading centrist candidate. Buttigieg has been vying for this spot, as well, and if Biden holds onto one of the top two spots in Iowa, he could force Buttigieg out.
Pete Buttigieg needs to beat Biden. Buttigieg and Biden are trying to sell the same message to the same voters: Only moderation will beat Trump in November.
But Buttigieg has also advertised himself as a bringer of change — someone who is young and willing to pursue progress, but at a slower pace than some of the other leftist candidates.
Buttigieg must supplant Biden as the top centrist in the race. If he finishes far behind Biden, it’s unlikely that Buttigieg will have the political momentum necessary to continue after New Hampshire. An Iowa surge isn’t that unlikely, either. Right now, Buttigieg is about four points behind Biden. That’s still a gap, but one that could easily shrink if, for instance, Klobuchar’s supporters realign with Buttigieg’s.
Elizabeth Warren needs to stay in the top three. After surging in the polls late last year, Warren’s campaign has stagnated. She’s still in third place nationally, but Sanders’s recent surge spells bad news for Warren.
The divide between Warren and Sanders is similar to the divide between Buttigieg and Biden. Both Warren and Sanders are fighting for the progressive vote, and right now, Sanders is winning. But Warren is still competitive, especially in New Hampshire. If she can hold onto third place, there’s a good chance she could come back on Feb. 11.
The problem is that Warren’s attempt to bridge the establishment/progressive divide in the Democratic Party has created a base that is not necessarily loyal to her. A recent Emerson College poll found that every single Warren supporter surveyed agreed to realign with a different candidate if Warren does not qualify. Compare that to Sanders’s supporters, 16% of which vowed not to support anyone but Sanders, even if he loses at their caucus site (something that isn’t likely to happen in too many places, mind you). This means that if Sanders performs better than Warren in Iowa, her supporters are more likely to jump ship and join Sanders’s campaign.
There’s still a lot of uncertainty heading into the Iowa caucuses. A good chunk of voters are uncommitted and the race is close enough that just about anything could happen. My colleagues Tim Carney and Phil Klein are on the ground in Iowa cutting through a lot of that uncertainty: Follow their reporting here and here. And buckle up — we’re just getting started.
