The Russians are coming — to Pyongyang, that is.
Visiting the North Korean capital this week, Russian Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev is laying the groundwork for an upcoming visit to Moscow by Kim Jong Un. That trip, expected within the next few weeks, will illustrate a deepening relationship between Russia and North Korea. At the Kremlin, Kim Jong Un will receive two messages from Vladimir Putin: Keep playing the Americans without granting major concessions, and expect our increased support.
Kolokoltsev’s arrival suggests as much. He’s a longtime Putin loyalist who quietly lives the good life while chasing the right criminals (business persons who get on Putin’s bad side), not the wrong ones (mafia dons who pay for Putin’s protection). And Russian state media reports that Kolokoltsev is meeting with North Korean security officials, likely to arrange the logistics of Kim’s travel. But you can bet Kolokoltsev will also offer Putin’s pledge to build a new relationship with Kim.
That pledge won’t be a lie.
From Putin’s perspective, Kim offers a rare opportunity to serve the Russian leader’s central strategic interest: the degradation of U.S. interests and their displacement by Russia geopolitical influence. Putin will encourage Kim to reject President Trump’s efforts to reach a grand bargain. Were Kim to surrender his intercontinental ballistic missile programs in return for a grand U.S. diplomatic and economic detente, Putin would find a more pro-American regime on Russian borders. He doesn’t want that. Neither does Putin want to see North Korean support for the U.S. international system. Instead, he wants Kim’s support for the mercantilist system outside the rule of law that Russia offers.
Yet, while Putin’s primary interest here is in damaging U.S. interests in favor of Russia’s, there are also other motivations for Putin’s outreach to Kim. For one, Putin wants an economic land bridge from Russia through North Korea to South Korea. But at a more basic level, the Russians also find it hilarious just to obstruct American ambitions. This might seem simplistic, but it is a constant theme in Putin’s foreign policy.
Unfortunately, President Trump’s exaggerated sense of friendship with Kim, and Kim’s continuing deference to his hardliner adviser Kim Yong Chol, mean that Putin’s gambit is likely to succeed. The North Koreans will respond warmly to the idea of Russian support and Putin’s consolidation of their rejection of U.S. interests.
