As 2022 approaches, things look bleak for Democrats in several states. Of the typical swing states, they may be bleakest in Nevada.

Jon Ralston of the Nevada Independent is raising the alarm about Democrats leaving the party, noting that Democrats are seeing nearly three times as many defections as Republicans over the last three months. Ralston says that the numbers are “relatively small,” given how many voters are in the state, “but if this pattern continues well into 2022, it could well be the canary in the coal mine for a red wave.”