Prime Minister Boris Johnson suffered a stunning setback on Tuesday when the English Supreme Court ruled 11-0 that his ongoing suspension of Parliament is unlawful. The decision causes significant damage to Johnson’s Brexit plans.
The court’s judgment was damning. It said that Johnson’s action had caused an “extreme” and unlawful effect in preventing Parliament from carrying on its responsibilities at a moment of national import. Holding the government to the principle that the judiciary interprets the law and applies it, the language of this decision also stands as Britain’s counterpart to the U.S. Supreme Court ruling in Marbury v. Madison, which established the constitutional norm of judicial review. It is thus an important historic moment, as well as political.
With Parliament set to return on Wednesday, the political impact of this legal decision will be to inject further pressure on Johnson. He will face a raucous House of Commons smelling blood in the water. And from the right of his Conservative Party, Johnson will face new frustration from parliamentarians who thought he could get Brexit done by Oct. 31.
How does the former mayor of London get out of the mess?
Johnson’s preference would be to call an election and pit himself as the candidate of “the silent majority” against an establishment that will do anything to prevent Brexit being carried out. Johnson’s problem, however, is that parliamentarians won’t give him that election unless he delays Brexit beyond Oct. 31 and rules out a so-called hard Brexit or a Brexit which involves a clean break from the European Union involving trade, politics, and law.
The prime minister says he won’t do that.
Yet, Johnson still has a glimmer of hope. He might somehow be able to win new concessions from the EU towards being able to get a deal through Parliament before the end of October. Some European leaders have hinted that they would be willing to make those concessions. While the resulting deal would center on a variation of Theresa May’s agreement, and thus alienate the most hawkish pro-Brexit conservatives — and Nigel Farage’s nominally right wing Brexit Party — it would achieve Brexit and bring this saga to an end.
